Beijing Review: What are your views on the significance of the 1972 Shanghai Communique and the development of China-U.S. relations in the past 35 years?

Jeffrey A. Bader: The Shanghai Communique provided the basis for the resumption of relations between the United States and China and after years in which there was virtually no contact. It did so not by suggesting that the two sides had common views on difficult issues, but instead by allowing each side to lay out its own view and encouraging each side to understand and respect the other's perspective. That was a sound and realistic basis for the resumption of contacts between two countries that disagreed on much more than they agreed upon.

Since then, our relationship has developed massively in many respects, and we have developed many common interests. This has brought us to a stage in our relationship that goes well beyond the guidelines of the communique.

Jerome A. Cohen: The secret Kissinger trip to Beijing in July 1971 and the February 1972 visit by President Nixon that it made possible did just what many students of Sino-American relations had hoped for. They reversed the tragic, hostile relationship that had existed for more than two decades and set our nations on an exciting and positive new course, one that both sides continue to benefit from today in many ways.

What are the thorniest issues in current China-U.S. relations and how should they be dealt with? Is there anything we can learn from the Shanghai Communique in terms of handling current bilateral relations?

Jeffrey A. Bader: The thorniest issues in U.S.-China relations are how to deal with countries that threaten to disrupt international peace and stability, how to develop a more stable and balanced economic and trade relationship, and how to deal with Taiwan. The Shanghai Communique language on threats to international peace and stability has largely been superseded by events and the emergence of crises of different kinds than the ones we were dealing with in 1972.

The spirit of the Shanghai Communique and its language on Taiwan remain relevant to how we address the issue today, in particular the "one China" policy of the United States that is implicit in the communique's formulations.

Minxin Pei: There are two types of thorny issues in Sino-U.S. relations-long-term and short-term.

In the short term, the most difficult issue is trade, which the United States views as unfair. China has a trade surplus with the United States of over $200 billion. In the context of rising anxiety about job losses in the United States due to globalization, such huge imbalances are not politically sustainable.

In the long term, the differences in the political systems of the two countries are clearly the most difficult issue.

To address the issue of bilateral trade tensions, China and the United States need to cooperate. The United States must be more patient, but the burden falls on China-Beijing needs to accelerate its domestic reforms so that China can have a more flexible currency regime and rely on domestic demand, not exports, to generate growth.

For the long term, there is not much that can be done. Such differences are going to be there as long as our eyes can see. So we need to learn to live with the structural tensions in Sino-U.S. relations.

Jerome A. Cohen: The thorniest issues that confront our relationship at present remain those relating to Taiwan and to differing views and practices regarding political and civil rights. The Shanghai Communique demonstrated that bold, enlightened and imaginative leadership on both sides can do much to help us manage even problems of the greatest sensitivity.

On what issues mentioned in the communique has there been progress?

Jeffrey A. Bader: The communique called for progress toward normalization of relations between the United States and China. Since then, our relations have been fully normalized and have expanded extraordinarily.

It discussed military crises in Indochina, Korea, India-Pakistan, and implicitly referred to the Cold War confrontation between the United States and the Soviet Union in Asia. The Cold War has ended with the collapse of the Soviet Union. Korea still remains a threat to international peace and stability, though the situation has changed with the normalization of relations between China and the Republic of Korea and contacts between the north and the south. The India-Pakistan dispute over Kashmir has not been settled, but tensions between the two sides have abated in recent years. The Viet Nam War ended long ago with the expulsion of U.S. forces from the region. The United States and Viet Nam have since normalized relations.

Finally the communique mentions in passing the desirability of expanding trade and people-to-people contacts. They have expanded by many orders of magnitude, I would say, well beyond anything imagined at the time by the drafters of the communique.

Jerome A. Cohen: Of course, there has been considerable progress on the Taiwan issue in recent decades as both mainland-Taiwan economic cooperation and cultural and tourist exchanges have begun to flourish. If ways can be found to prevent a cross-strait arms race, to open up the long-awaited "three links" [direct postal, transportation and trade links between the Chinese mainland and Taiwan] for enhanced contacts between the two sides and to establish a continuing dialogue, prospects for managing this most difficult challenge will brighten.

The People's Republic has also done much to establish a legal system and to increase popular awareness of political and civil rights as well as economic, social and cultural rights.

Where do you see the U.S.-China trade relationship is going in the coming years?

Jeffrey A. Bader: The trade relationship between the two sides has grown spectacularly, with two-way trade expanding by several hundred percent in the last decade. Each side will play an increasingly important part in both the international trade interests and the economic growth of the other in the coming years.

In addition, investment, not only by Americans in China but by Chinese in America, will grow and stimulate trade and economic expansion. I expect China's markets to continue to open further even as China completes the fulfillment of its WTO commitments.

I do not foresee American markets closing, though trade frictions are increasing from the American side as China's exports to the United States continue to grow at rates over 25 percent annually and the Chinese bilateral trade surplus expands to record levels.

Jerome A. Cohen: With regard to trade relations, we should expect continuing progress and mutual benefit, but this will require not only more substantial concessions from China about opening its markets and adjusting its currency but also a long-overdue recognition by the United States that its massive trade deficits are largely the product of the American people's lack of economic discipline and their government's unwise tax and spending policies.

How will the Democrats' control of the House and Senate change Washington's China policy? And how will that affect bilateral relations?

Jeffrey A. Bader: U.S. policy toward China will be fundamentally unaffected in most respects by the change in control of Congress. On security and political issues, there is little difference between the two parties with regard to China. On economic issues, some Democrats are more wary of the impact of globalization and the effect of trade on American workers than their Republican counterparts. That may result in occasional targeted measures that affect trade in highly specific sectors, but I do not foresee Democrats supporting steps that significantly retard two-way trade. Democrats understand that the prosperity of China and of Asia affects American prosperity and they do not wish to see U.S. economic growth damaged.

Finally, it should be remembered that the president has the responsibility under the American Constitution to conduct foreign policy and he has the power to veto legislation in the trade area. So the initiative and in most cases the final word on policy will remain with President Bush, where it has been for the last six years.

Minxin Pei: The Democrats will put more pressure on the issues of human rights and trade balances, although the Democrats do not share the Republican view that China is a military threat to the United States. So in practical terms, China should expect rising criticisms from Congress on trade and human rights issues.

Jerome A. Cohen: I do not believe that the Democrats' control of Congress will seriously add to the difficulties of U.S.-China relations. Although our country is deeply divided over our disastrous Middle East policy, there has been and continues to be broad bipartisan support for better relations with China despite flare-ups over Taiwan, human rights and trade. Our leaders of both major parties recognize that each country needs the other and that it would be irresponsible to pursue courses of action that might unduly strain our cooperation.

What kind of role do you think the China-U.S. relationship plays in international affairs?

Jeffrey A. Bader: The relationship between the United States and China is critical for the resolution and management of a number of important international issues, and of importance for some others.

A close relationship between the United States and China is absolutely essential for the resolution of the North Korean nuclear issue. The good relationship between Washington and Beijing has facilitated the six-party talks, though it has not led to a resolution of the issue.

A stable U.S.-China relationship contributes to the maintenance of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, which is essential to peace and prosperity throughout the East Asian region.

The resolution of issues in the UN Security Council depends on cooperation between our two countries. Among the most prominent such issues at the present time are Iran's nuclear program and the Darfur conflict in Sudan. Closer cooperation between the United States and China will be essential to solving those problems. The two countries are working in parallel to support reconstruction and stability in Afghanistan.

Minxin Pei: This relationship is crucially important in the regional security of East Asia. As long as the two countries cooperate, East Asia will remain peaceful.

Cooperation between the United States and China will also help resolve several global challenges-energy security, climate change and nuclear proliferation.

At the moment, the United States and China cooperate more on some issues than on others. On the North Korean nuclear issue, the two countries cooperate more; but the two countries are not working closely on energy security and climate change.

Fifteen years from now, on the 50th anniversary of your first trip to Beijing, how do you think we can expect Sino-U.S. relations to appear?

Henry Kissinger: I hope they will have been adapted to the new situation that we described before. Right now, the relationship is good and cooperative. But many of the problems that I mentioned are still before us. But I'm optimistic because I've seen now a succession of American presidents committing themselves to the importance of the relationship and to making the adjustments that were needed. And I've seen a succession of Chinese leaders who have moved in a parallel direction. So I'm basically optimistic.

But of course we are now coming into a period when new types of people are getting into power on both sides, more attuned to the current technology, less conceptual, more geared to the Internet type of cognition. And how that will be related to long-term policy, on any subject, is to me a big challenge.

Reporting from New York