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UPDATED: January 23, 2007 NO.4 JAN.25, 2007
Southeast Asia Branches Out
As they step up integration, Southeast Asian nations lead the pack in East Asia and beyond
By YAN WEI
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Addressing the Second East Asia Summit in Cebu, the Philippines, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao underscored openness in East Asian cooperation. "Participation by countries and organizations outside the region should be welcome to widen the scope and reinforce the foundation of the cooperation," he said.

However, China is explicit regarding the backbone of the cooperative process. It supports the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in continuing to play a leading role in East Asian cooperation, Wen stressed.

The premier was in the Philippines from January 13-16 for a series of East Asian summits, including the 10th ASEAN-China Summit, the 10th ASEAN Plus China, Japan and South Korea (ASEAN Plus Three) Summit, the Second East Asia Summit and the Seventh Chinese, Japanese and South Korean Leaders' Meeting, in Cebu and an official visit to Manila.

The premier's view on East Asian cooperation is echoed by Chinese scholars. They believe that ASEAN will strengthen its status as a leading player in East Asian cooperation with regional integration further deepening.

A common voice

ASEAN leaders convened their own summit in Cebu on January 13. Among the wide-ranging topics discussed, Zhai Kun, an expert on Southeast Asian affairs with the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, identified three "historical decisions" concerning the organization's long-term planning, institutional development and cooperation on antiterrorism.

Leaders of the ASEAN member countries promised to establish an ASEAN Community by 2015, five years ahead of schedule. They issued a declaration on drafting the blueprint of the ASEAN Charter, which is expected to go through final approval at the next ASEAN Summit in Singapore in November this year. They also signed their first convention on fighting terrorism.

In an article published by the official newspaper People's Daily, Zhai analyzed the far-reaching implications of these initiatives.

First, they have charted the course for Southeast Asia's future development. Zhai noted that ASEAN countries must jointly strive for self-development in order to become masters of the region where the world's major powers vied for dominance. He continued that while stepping up the modernization of their respective countries, they have found a common voice through regional integration in ASEAN. He believes the two-pronged strategy is the right approach Southeast Asia has chosen since the end of World War II.

Also, these decisions will strengthen ASEAN's leading role in East Asian cooperation. Zhai pointed out that since the end of the Cold War, ASEAN has been successful not only in balancing its relations with major world powers, but also in putting itself at the helm of East Asian cooperation, a position that is acceptable to all major powers. No single country in the organization can set its direction, steer its course or coordinate the relations of various participants. The integration of ASEAN therefore has a crucial bearing on the sustainable growth of its influence, the expert noted.

In addition, ASEAN leaders made these important decisions to meet new challenges, he said. Over the past 40 years, ASEAN has made great strides as it adapted to the changes in member countries and the international community. At present, it is confronted with emerging challenges posed by economic globalization, the changing power structure in Asia, non-traditional security threats and the internal problems in ASEAN.

Given this fact, Zhai pointed out that there is a growing need to recognize and codify new principles and methods, adding that the trend is evidenced by the Eminent Persons Group's suggestions on the ASEAN Charter. The charter is exactly meant to turn ASEAN from a loose organization to a rule-based, institutionalized one, he said.

At the same time, the decisions are aimed at improving ASEAN's leadership. While enhancing the capacity to address its own problems, ASEAN is expected to become more competent in coping with the relations among its 10 members and between the organization and its partners.

"As a strong advocate and main player in East Asian cooperation, ASEAN coordinates the cooperative process," Zhai wrote. "The deepening of ASEAN integration is poised to exert a positive influence on the cooperation in East Asia."

However, the integration is not trouble free. Shi Yongming, an expert with the China Institute of International Relations, cited a few chronic problems that have been affecting the process, such as the uneven development of the member countries. Influence from the United States and Japan also complicates the situation, he said.

He noted that the foreign investment in Southeast Asia mostly comes from Japan and the United States. While U.S. investments are mainly commercial, Japan tends to focus on strategic investments, maintaining a financial and technological monopoly in the region, he said.

Strengthening regional ties

For all the complexities, the atmosphere for East Asian cooperation has considerably improved, partly because of the easing tension between Japan and its neighbors, experts say. The trilateral meeting among China, Japan and South Korea within the framework of ASEAN Plus Three was resumed, producing a broad range of consensus, including the establishment of a regular consultation among senior diplomats of the three countries.

In a bilateral meeting held on the sidelines of the ASEAN Plus Three Summit, Wen told his Japanese counterpart Shinzo Abe that Sino-Japanese relations are returning to normal, a fact that both sides should appreciate. He indicated that the two countries should also make greater efforts to keep the diplomatic ball rolling.

Sino-Japanese relations were strained during former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's five-year term as he paid repeated visits to the Yasukuni Shrine, viewed by some as a symbol of Japan's past militarism.

Abe made an "icebreaking" trip to Beijing shortly after he assumed office in early October last year. In a show of warming bilateral relations, Wen accepted Abe's invitation to visit Japan in the spring during their meeting in Cebu.

Shi told Beijing Review that in the past two ASEAN Plus Three summits, leaders avoided mentioning sensitive issues such as politics and security. At the Cebu summit, however, Wen raised pushing forward cooperation in the security field--both traditional and nontraditional security--as one of the five suggestions he offered for an enhanced ASEAN Plus Three cooperation, Shi noted.

He commented that this was made possible by the thaw of China-Japan relations. He continued that it shows the countries now have a new perception of the ASEAN Plus Three cooperation and it is conducive to laying a solid political groundwork for this mechanism.

Zhai said the cooperation among China, Japan and South Korea is the key to the success of East Asian cooperation; however, cooperation in Northeast Asia lags far behind that in Southeast Asia and is susceptible to political factors. Pessimistic sentiments prevailed in the international community when the 2005 trilateral summit was cancelled as a result of the stalemate over Japan's evaluation of its history, he said.

Zhai believes that the ASEAN Plus Three mechanism is the concrete platform for establishing an East Asian community. The East Asia Summit, however, is still at an initial stage and is only complementary to ASEAN Plus Three, according to the expert.

Energy was high on the agenda of the Second East Asia Summit in Cebu. Leaders from 16 countries-10 ASEAN countries, China, Japan, South Korea, India, Australia and New Zealand-signed the Cebu Declaration on Energy Security. The agreement aims to help the countries in the region reduce their dependence on conventional fuels through intensified energy efficiency programs, expansion of renewable energy systems and bio-fuel production and utilization.

They also agreed to pay close attention to the security, environmental, health and safety dimensions of the energy sector. Further, they tasked relevant officials to look into a regional nuclear safety regime.

For China and ASEAN, everything is proceeding in a planned manner, experts noted. The agreement on trade in services signed in Cebu is expected to help firms from the Southeast Asian economic bloc gain improved market access to China's burgeoning service sector, including banking, information technology and tourism.

It marks a key step forward in building the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area and lays the foundation for its full and scheduled completion, Wen said in his keynote speech at the ASEAN-China Summit.

An agreement on merchandise trade took effect in July 2005, following an early harvest program of initial tariff cuts on meat, fish, dairy products, vegetables, fruits and nuts. The agreement on trade in services was one of the remaining key documents to be devised for the world's largest free trade area between China and ASEAN set to materialize in 2010, in addition to an investment agreement.

Trade between China and ASEAN countries has boomed in the past 15 years, with bilateral trade volume growing more than 20 percent a year to reach $160 billion in 2006. The two sides are each other's fourth largest trading partners.

Shi was confident about the development of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area, which he believes is progressing as scheduled. There are almost no barriers in the way, he added. However, the expert stressed that when the free trade area is established, the two sides should make the most of its advantages to benefit their economies.

Looking at China-ASEAN cooperation in 2007, Shi said it would be a year of concrete action. He said the two sides' pioneering efforts to formulate frameworks for cooperation are nearing the end and the focus at present is on honoring the commitments and tapping the potential of existing mechanisms.

"A pragmatic approach will dominate bilateral relations this year," he said. "At the same time, the two sides should see to it that the problems that crop up along with their ever-tightening economic and human bonds are properly addressed."



 
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