In Central Asia and the South Caucasus, Russia and Georgia find themselves at odds over issues concerning the status of South Ossetia, Russia's military bases in Georgia and the price of Russia's gas exports. Kyrgyzstan's constitutional crisis has yet to be completely resolved. GUUAM, an unofficial regional organization created by Georgia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan and Moldova, has been upgraded into an international organization-the GUUAM Organization for Democracy and Economic Development. How to coordinate the relationship between GUUAM and the CIS is currently a pressing issue.

In South Asia, Afghanistan is struggling to achieve economic development. With the Taliban staging a comeback, the country risks becoming a source of terrorism once again. Turmoil in Nepal abated after the king handed control of the country to the people. However, the Seven-Party Alliance and Maoists will face grave challenges as they seek to govern the country in coalition. In Sri Lanka, although a ceasefire has been declared between the government and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam rebels, still greater efforts are required to realize lasting peace. Thailand has yet to walk out of the shadow of its military coup. Feelings of insecurity are affecting high-ranking officials and ordinary people alike.

In the Middle East, Iraq has been victimized by mounting sectarian violence. New-generation Islamic jihadists keep emerging. They are likely to provide a fresh impetus to the violence and terrorism in the region, turning it into one of the most important sources of instability in the Middle East and the world at large. Palestinians and Israelis still have difficulties in resuming their peace process.

In Africa, Somalia and Sudan will continue to draw the attention of the international community. In the South Pacific, the situation in the Solomon Islands, Tonga and Fiji will remain volatile.

The reasons for the instability and chaos in these countries are varied. Some of them have encountered setbacks as they pursue a path of development suited to their conditions. Some are experiencing spiraling conflicts because of the intervention of external forces. Others are destabilized in the wake of heightening domestic political, economic and social conflicts. All of these countries, however, are affected by the negative impact of globalization to varying degrees. In order to help them curb unstable factors, efforts should be made to render the globalization process fairer and more balanced and bring these countries from the margins of world development right to its center.

Nuclear deadlock

The nuclear issue will continue to be the focal point of international security. The international nonproliferation regime will face a severe test. Some major signatories to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) have failed to honor their obligations. For example, the United States adopts a double standard in this regard. It has not only beefed up its research on usable nuclear weapons but also signed a civilian nuclear energy cooperation agreement with India, a country that refuses to join the NPT. France indicated in early 2006 that it could launch preemptive attacks with nuclear weapons. Britain also announced it was upgrading its strategic nuclear forces.

Moreover, Iran and North Korea cling to their nuclear programs, increasing the possibility of a nuclear arms race in the region and the world at large. Today, nearly 40 countries may be capable of developing nuclear weapons. Six countries in the Middle East-Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia-have clearly shown an intension to develop nuclear energy. The six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council have done the same. Discussions on developing nuclear technology have never ceased in Japan.

Apart from these alarming trends, the inherent defects of the international nonproliferation regime, such as the discriminatory treatment of nuclear-capable countries and nuclear-free countries and the lack of an effective supervision mechanism, are becoming evident. Meanwhile, people are losing confidence in the major powers' cooperation aimed at checking nuclear proliferation. How to shape a new anti-proliferation regime will be high on the international security agenda.

Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency Mohamed ElBaradei maintained that the proliferation issue should be resolved through the cooperation of the international community or of certain countries. He called for more relaxed policies toward countries that are trustworthy in terms of nuclear technological standards and transparency in operations. While promoting its Proliferation Security Initiative, the United States tends to lift restrictions only on those that are in step with it. Russia suggested that the international community should have a unified control over the sales of nuclear materials. It has recently proposed building a center to that end with Kazakhstan. There is evidence that a major rivalry over nuclear proliferation has started in the international arena.