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UPDATED: January 5, 2009 NO. 2 JAN. 8, 2009
Can Shopping Vouchers Boost Consumption?
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Some people are worried that retailers will offer substandard commodities unworthy of 100 yuan, but the government can prevent this through precautions. On the other hand, most retailers who are fully aware of the cumulative benefits of a lot of vouchers will provide the best service possible to attract voucher holders.

Wang Renzhi (Information Times): In China, consumer spending only accounts for 37.5 percent of the gross domestic product, while in South Korea, Japan and India, the proportion is 52 percent, 55 percent and 55 percent, respectively. The figure is as high as 71 percent in the United States.

Most of the country's announced economic stimulus investment will be spent on basic infrastructure construction. With so much investment, China's economy is sure to register fast growth. However, it will have little to do with people's income. The government is not supposed to use all financial resources on "construction." After all, the ultimate goal of construction is to stimulate consumption and improve people's living conditions.

Stephen S. Roach, Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, concluded after several years of research that the Chinese are loathe to spend money. Actually, the Chinese are not born misers. As there are no well-developed social safety nets in the fields of health, education, unemployment and no annuities for most people, the people have no choice but to save.

To stimulate consumption, the most effective way is to issue shopping vouchers to the public, so that they can fully enjoy the government's financial stimulus. Such practices are often seen in Western countries. If central and local governments do issue shopping vouchers to the public, it won't take long for the country's domestic demand to be boosted.

Focus on root cause

Sheng Xiang (www.china.com.cn): In south China's Dongguan City, low-income families received living subsidies worth 1,000 yuan ($143) each from the local government in the first half of 2008. Recently, Chengdu also issued shopping vouchers to local low-income families. However, it seems unrealistic to give every Chinese a shopping voucher. The authorities say distributing money does not conform to China's national conditions. This is not an excuse, but the truth. The low consumer confidence in China should be mainly blamed on poor income expectations and a widespread sense of insecurity due to an inadequate social welfare system.

When a country has a well-developed social security system, and people's consumer confidence only needs a only slight stimulus, shopping vouchers might be very useful. However, in the case of China, when people receive vouchers, the first thing that comes to their minds is not how to enjoy shopping, but how to cash in the vouchers and save the money.

To tap Chinese residents' consumption potential, the government should first establish a sound social security system, covering health, unemployment, education and housing. Only when people have enough money to spend will they feel comfortable with consumption.

Sheng Dalin (Orient Today): To issue shopping vouchers is more effective in stimulating domestic demand than giving money. However, its function is also limited. For example, someone plans to buy 100 yuan worth of commodities before the vouchers are issued. Without vouchers, he will use cash for shopping. In this sense, the shopping vouchers have done nothing to boost consumption. Besides, people may rush to buy things with their vouchers that they do not need immediately, but will need in the future. If this happens, after the temporary shopping boom, the market might turn out to be more sluggish than before.

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