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UPDATED: March 18, 2015 NO. 12 MARCH 19, 2015
The Peninsula Puzzle
North Korea eager to break estrangement but must first return to six-party talks
By An Gang
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Recently, Pyongyang and Seoul as well as Washington have battled on a nontraditional, asymmetrical playing field. An annual report on global security threats issued by the United States on February 26 identifies the threat of cyberattack as the biggest peril currently facing the United States, naming North Korea as a major danger. South Korea's JoongAng Daily website reported on February 10 that there are seven hacker groups comprising a total of 1,700 hackers working within the North Korean Workers' Party and National Defense Commission. At the end of 2014, Washington accused Pyongyang of hacking Sony Pictures prior to the release of comedy film The Interview, which depicts an assassination attempt on North Korea's supreme leader. Though Pyongyang denied involvement, the United States exacted its revenge by shutting down North Korea's Internet and 3G mobile network twice in December 2014 and imposing sanctions against three North Korean governmental organs as well as 10 officials.

China-North Korea relations have also been mired in an exceptionally difficult set of circumstances since the 1990s. North Korea's insistence on developing nuclear weapons does not conform to China's strategic security interests. China has not only stringently fulfilled its obligations to impose sanctions on Pyongyang, but also exerted its influence through bilateral channels to push its neighbor to suspend the nuclear program and return to the six-party talks unconditionally, so that its neighbor can concentrate on improving people's quality of life and making economic headway. Up to now, the current heads of state of the two countries have not met for talks since assuming office.

North Korea has consequently pinned its hopes on renewing relations with Russia, South Korea, Japan, and even its archenemy, the United States, so as to leverage its relations with China and extricate itself from diplomatic isolation. However, owing to the Ukraine crisis and the drop in international oil prices, Russia itself faces severe Western sanctions and an economic downturn, thus it cannot offer North Korea sufficient support. Meanwhile, given their inherent mistrust of Pyongyang, neither the United States nor South Korea is willing to work with the "hermit kingdom." Although Japan's Shinzo Abe administration has sent a delegation to North Korea to investigate the issue of "missing Japanese citizens," the mission was soon suspended under pressure from the United States. Most importantly, all relevant parties share the same attitude toward Pyongyang's nuclear program and a common goal: pursuing a Korean Peninsula that is free of nuclear weapons, which is "mission impossible" given North Korea's ardent pursuit of nuclear technology and capabilities.

Over the years, North Korea has successively upgraded its nuclear technology and attempted to launch satellites. The United States has concluded that North Korea's ulterior motive is to gain the ability to launch a direct nuclear attack upon U.S. soil. Washington also believes that it is possible that North Korea could disintegrate internally. Thus, seen from both the domestic and international perspectives, there is no motivation for the United States to alleviate pressure on Pyongyang. The United States monitors North Korea on a daily basis to guard against any possible attacks on itself and its allies, while in the long run, it is waiting for Pyongyang to crumble from within. In addition, for the purposes of containing China, through maintaining a U.S. military presence on the Korean Peninsula as well as suppressing Tokyo and Seoul's nuclear power plans, it is arguable that Washington is deliberately maintaining a moderate degree of tension on the Korean Peninsula for its own strategic interests.

The fundamental reason for the current Korean Peninsula deadlock lies in the fact that there is no turning back on North Korea's nuclear tests; and that North Korea feels a sense of insecurity owing to what it perceives as hostility on the part of the United States and South Korea. Therefore, even if the Six-party Talks were to be restored, a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula would still represent a goal that is unlikely to be achieved.

However, the current economic stalemate which owes to longstanding sanctions on North Korea requires the nation to improve its relations with other countries. The international community, preoccupied with the mission to create a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula, should not turn a deaf ear to its legitimate concerns.

The author is an op-ed contributor to Beijing Review

Email us at: liuyunyun@bjreview.com

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