Quarrel continues

The constitutional referendum was an important test for whether Egypt's political situation will stabilize in the near future. The new constitution offers definite laws for the Egyptian government, which will help stabilize internal politics and restore order. In winning the referendum, Morsi further solidified his reputation and presidency. But since many structural problems have yet to be resolved, Egypt still faces challenges in the long run.

Political disputes between religious forces and secular groups have emerged publicly and regularly. Seizing the opportunity of Egypt's democratic transition, the Muslim Brotherhood has changed its role in Egyptian politics from a marginal power to a dominant one. But the huge administrative system has maintained most of its original officials from the Mubarak period. It is obvious that the new ruling party differs greatly from the old guard. They have argued fiercely on many key issues, including power distribution, the legitimacy of the parliament and the drafting of the constitution. The latest political crisis caused by Morsi's constitutional declaration concentrated the firepower of long-disunited opposition together. Renowned Egyptian political figures established the National Salvation Front, which includes eight major political factions that stood against the referendum, on November 24, 2012.

The controversy over the new constitution boiled down to a dispute between secular and religious sides as to which direction Egypt will go in the future, one that is governed by religious or by secular standards.

Moreover, Morsi has vowed to investigate some senior officials in Mubarak's administration to bring justice to those who shed their blood in Cairo's Tahrir Square protests. Confrontation between the ruling Muslim Brotherhood and the opposition will likely continue if any action is taken.

The country's economic recovery is probably the biggest weakness for Morsi's administration. Large protests broke out in Egypt in 2011 because of the country's economic difficulties and Egyptian people's poor living conditions. The former government implemented neo-liberalism, leading to a weak national industry. Egypt's economy has long relied on the four pillars of tourism, the Suez Canal, oil and overseas remittance. If the country wants to realize economic prosperity, it has to find a new path of reindustrialization. However, it appears that the Muslim Brotherhood has no plans to change the past economic model and will continue the strategy of liberalization and privatization. In that case, Egypt's economy is unlikely to see much progress.

Moreover, political chaos over the past two years has worsened its economic environment. By the end of 2012, Egypt's foreign exchange reserves had shrunk to $15 billion from $36 billion in early 2011. According to a report from Egypt's Ministry of Finance, in the fiscal year of 2012-13, the fiscal deficit of the country reached $22.5 billion, accounting for 10 percent of GDP.

Morsi has made frequent visits to foreign countries since taking office. Most of his state visits had the same purpose of seeking economic support. Nevertheless, Morsi has not reached his goal. The continued economic woe will disappoint the people, who may stand up again to protest the new government.

Morsi's power centralization attempt also faces strong resistance. Around 40 percent of Egyptian people live below the poverty line. The polarization between the rich and the poor is getting increasingly serious. While expanding the people's political participation, Egypt's democratic transition has weakened its political system. Various forces have begun to get involved in politics, resulting in disorder.

In order to restore order and speed up political reconstruction, Morsi must obtain more powers to govern the country. But he has met with increasing resistance. For instance, although he spared no efforts to pass the new constitution, the process of drawing up the constitution proved bumpy. The Supreme Constitutional Court dismissed the committee charged with writing the constitution in April 2012. To prevent the constitution-making process from being interrupted again, Morsi issued a constitutional declaration on November 22, only to spark massive protests.

Egypt's political transformation is still a work in progress. Various groups and forces have entered the political arena, causing repeated conflicts. Nevertheless, the country is not likely to fall into another "revolution."

The author is an associate research fellow with the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations

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