The biggest threat comes from the intervention of Western countries and some Arab countries. While showing support for Annan's mediation, they didn't give up their determination to overthrow the Bashar al-Assad regime. On the one hand, they said they back the ceasefire; but on the other hand, they continue to increase their support for the Syrian opposition. For instance, the United States announced it would offer $25 million in non-weaponry assistance to the Syrian opposition. Britain said it would double its non-military assistance. Qatar and Saudi Arabia have called for arming the Syrian opposition. At the recent Friends of Syria conference, the two countries, together with the United Arab Emirates, pledged $100 million to provide salaries for opposition fighters.

The Syrian opposition is fragmented and without unified command. Therefore, it is hard to ask all opposition groups to follow the truce. Moreover, various extremist groups, including Al Qaeda, have joined the opposition. They will try every effort to destroy the ceasefire for their own purposes and interests. In the meantime, the Syrian Government has declared that the army will "remain on standby to retaliate against any attack by the armed terrorist groups against civilians, the security services, armed forces, or private or public property" during the ceasefire. Under these circumstances, it is difficult to realize a real truce in the country.

The Syrian Government has learned a lesson from past experiences. Several months ago, when government forces withdrew from some cities under the requirement of the Arab League observer mission, opposition groups seized the chance to expand their range. So this time, the Syrian Government will not allow the same thing to happen. But the government's refusal to withdraw heavy weapons and troops gives the opposition an excuse to fight back.

Syria weighs much in the region in balancing pro-American and anti-American forces. It is also a strategic base for Iran to project its power in the Arab world and influence the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. A regime change in Syria will help the United States reinforce regional pro-American forces and suppress the expansion of Iran. It will also help U.S. President Barack Obama gain more political support at home. Given these huge potential benefits, Obama seems set to push for a leadership transition in Syria.

In this context, Annan's vision for peace in Syria will not materialize easily. It is predictable that turmoil will persist in the country. Chances for government forces and opposition groups to resume fighting remain high.

Kofi Annan's Peace Plan

The Syrian Government should

- commit to working in an inclusive Syrian-led political process to address the legitimate aspirations and concerns of the Syrian people;

- commit to stopping the fighting and achieve urgently an effective UN-supervised cessation of armed violence in all its forms by all parties to protect civilians and stabilize the country;

- ensure timely provision of humanitarian assistance to all areas affected by the fighting and accept and implement a daily two-hour humanitarian pause;

- intensify the pace and scale of release of arbitrarily detained persons;

- ensure freedom of movement throughout the country for journalists and a non-discriminatory visa policy for them; and

- respect freedom of association and the right to demonstrate peacefully as legally guaranteed.

(Source:www.un.org)

The author is a research fellow with the China Institute of International Studies

Email us at: yanwei@bjreview.com