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There is also the issue of balancing growth not just between urban and rural areas, but between the very different parts of China. Coastal regions have become wealthier, but there are still big differences in terms of per-capita GDP between a developed province like Zhejiang, and an inland province like Gansu, where Hu spent over a decade in the early part of his career from 1968. The developmental challenges of each of these areas are different, as are their chief assets and advantages. Finding a means of dealing at a national level with the differences that exist across China's provinces and autonomous regions has proved to be a big challenge. The language used by Hu and the leadership around him of a harmonious society aims, on many levels, at dealing with this challenge.
As the size and importance of the Chinese economy increase, so does the way in which China relates to the world. Since 2008, while the developed world has been posting very low, or in many cases negative, growth statistics, the Chinese economy has increased by 40 percent. It has been one of the major sources of GDP growth globally. Some economists state that if one were to remove the Chinese contribution to GDP growth from 2001 to the world, it would have been an era of stagnation. Since 2008, this role as a global engine of growth has become more important. But so have the demands made on China as a country.
President Hu and Premier Wen Jiabao have resisted talk of an age of China as a superpower rivaling the United States. When there was a suggestion in 2009 that, regardless of a G20 or G8 or G7, there was in fact only one grouping that mattered, and that was the G2 (the United States and China), they said this was a misapprehension, and their key priority was to continue dealing with the country's internal issues. They did not want to be drawn into a "global superpower club."
Even so, the demands on China as a diplomatic actor are likely to grow fast. Many countries will seek its support for their positions on issues during trade or political negotiations. Areas where China has traditionally wanted to remain detached from will take up its time and focus. The more tangible part of this is investment abroad, with partners from the EU to Latin America or Africa vying to see Chinese state and non-state companies come and place resources. The less tangible aspect is the way in which China will act as a model for other countries as they look away from the U.S.-led model for something different.
Within China there are lively debates about what sort of influence China might want to have. For some, like foreign affairs expert Yan Xuetong of Tsinghua University, the aspiration is for China to be a moral and intellectual exemplar, in ways that the United States has aspired to be in the last century. But for many other thinkers in China, the critical issue is to deal with the huge challenges society and the economy will face during the transition to middle-income status over the next decade. For them, this remains the critical mission, rather than stretching too far beyond China's borders.
China's greatest asset is that it still has enormous space for growth, and that strong growth will remain likely in its economy over the coming decade and beyond. The momentum of this growth will at least either cure problems, or offset them until a time when they become more manageable. The challenge after 10 years of strong growth, however, is that now issues of balance and sustainability will become more pressing, and support for policy tools like those that develop social welfare, reform pension and tax systems, and look at the imbalances within China's political economy will become more necessary.
The most symbolic moment of the period during which Hu has been secretary general of the CPC Central Committee was the opening of the Beijing Olympics on August 8, 2008, when over 4 billion people watched the vast ceremony from the National Stadium in Beijing, known as the Bird's Nest. The Olympics taught the world a lot about China. But the event also showed that many outside the country have a complex, and sometimes contradictory, attitude to what China means to them, and how its development might affect them in the decades ahead. Compared to a decade ago, Chinese and non-Chinese are all more knowledgeable about each other. This is a good thing.
As U.S. President Barack Obama and President Hu acknowledged during Hu's visit to the United States in January 2011, people-to-people contact between China and the outside world has never been richer and stronger. But the outside world, and in particular the developed world, still needs to move beyond some of its stereotyping of what China is, how it behaves, and what its development means. This will be a big challenge in the coming decade, because one thing that events since 2002 have taught us is that we are inclined to underestimate the scale and the speed of the changes China is undergoing. And at the moment, there is no reason to think that these are likely to slow down in the decade that lies ahead.
The author is head of the Asia Program at Chatham House, London
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