Even the timing of the release of the new white paper has had significance—days before the dissolution of Japan's lower house of Parliament. Many observers believe the new contents of the white paper will provide participants in the coming general elections an opportunity to discuss the future direction of Japan's defense policy.
Domestic economic growth and the ongoing reform of Japan's system of social guarantees and entitlements will remain the primary focus of voters. But Japan's main parties must face the inevitable task of providing their own blueprint for the country's security policies during the election campaign.
Currently, the long-standing popularity of the incumbent Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is in a steady decline—while the Democratic Party (DP) remains ascendant. Thus, the likelihood of dramatic change—or at least a newly empowered opposition—is very real.
How a new cabinet will tailor or approve the views of the new white paper to the opinions of different political parties remains to be seen. Irrespective of which party predominates though, it is unlikely Japan's defense policy will see its considerable of manpower and hardware lessened in to any degree.
By the end of 2009, Japan will redraw its national defense policy to guide the country's defense construction over the next five years. It is worth noting how much this year's white paper will influence the outcome. Many observers believe that it is serving more as a road show than a planned outline—clearing the way for a long-term path for an increase in Japan's defense budget in the coming years.
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ON BOARD: Members of the Japanese Coast Guard climb up the gangplank of a Japanese navy destroyer on February 20 for a piracy combating exercise (XINHUA/AFP) |
The author is an associate researcher with the China Institute of International Studies |