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Expert's View
Expert's View
UPDATED: November 18, 2008 NO. 47 NOV. 20, 2008
Biggest Economic Challenge Ever
The current problem is that the swelling bubble in the housing sector has greatly suppressed citizens' consumption capabilities. Auto consumption can no longer be considered a savior
By WANG JUN
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Third, the government should guide companies to invest in infrastructure and not to rely solely on the government. The 1998 pro-active fiscal policy-issuing a large amount of treasury bonds to invest in infrastructure-had indeed played an important role in stimulating domestic economic growth. However, the massive treasury investment had forced many private companies out of business.

Currently, the Chinese private economy is growing stronger, and the government could use a small sum of funds to guide social investments. For instance, if a big project is to be started, the government could invest in a small proportion of the stake and let the companies participate in it.

It is not a good idea for us to take on many projects at one time or assume those efforts can quickly take effect. At present, China is facing excessive supply and inefficient demand such as in the power sector or the steel sector. The urgent task now is to upgrade the economic development pattern and eliminate outdated production capacity.

What's your view on the current property market stimulation plan?

The real estate industry is one of the pillar industries of China and is an important propellant that has driven domestic consumption since 1998.

The healthy development of the property market can help drive domestic demand for related products, such as home appliances, cement, furniture and steel. The auto industry, once a major economic growth factor, is less encouraged due to higher standard of energy conservation and pollution prevention. During the process of urbanization and modernization, the citizens have great demands for homes, and the government has made a correct decision to revive the property market through the recently promulgated stimulation plans such as reducing the contract tax.

I think the present property market correction won't pose a big threat to the credit market in China, but it will diminish local fiscal revenue, which in turn will dampen government expenditure on civil engineering projects. A less prosperous home market might jack up non-performing loans in commercial banks.

Last but not the least, I want to say that property developers must have a strong sense of social responsibility, and the homes they develop should be worthy of citizens' life savings. They should win market respect through building high-quality homes and conduct merger and acquisitions when the market is in a downturn.

 

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