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Expert's View
UPDATED: July 12, 2008 NO. 29 JUL. 17, 2008
The Era of Super Capitalism
The world has entered the "super capitalism" era when one third of its economic activities are controlled by less than 3 percent of global financial capital
 
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I cannot tell you whether the share prices of stocks bought by China Investment Corp. will rise in the next one or two months. But I am certain that when you look back on today's purchase 10 years later, you will be very pleased by today's decisions.

If I were to create a portfolio for a sovereign wealth fund, my first choice would be super capital, which uses the least money to do the biggest business, and its investment return would be very high. The world's top 500 companies are major investment targets. I also would buy resources such as technology, brands and patents. China now lacks those resources, which will generate the biggest profits in the future.

I strongly hold that sovereign wealth funds should increase their investment transparency to reduce political barriers when investing abroad.

The U.S. dollar has depreciated greatly in recent years. Will it keep depreciating or recover soon?

I think the U.S. dollar is now facing a turning point and will recover sooner or later. The U.S. dollar will remain in a dominant position before any currency takes its place.

The United States played a tricky game. By consuming excessive goods globally, it owed a lot in dollars to other countries, and its trade deficit worsened. However, when it could not make up for the deficit and when a financial crisis occurred, its currency depreciated, which made foreign sovereign wealth funds' dollar assets shrink substantially overnight.

But looking around globally, there is no major currency that can stand up against the U.S. dollar. Neither the Japanese yen nor the euro can replace the dollar's position, because the two economies are facing structural problems.

What are the major risks pressing the Chinese economy?

Currently, China is challenged by growth risk and inflation. In fact, the whole world is facing these two problems, and some are confronted with stagflation. In the United States, growth risk is bigger than inflation risk, while in China, inflation risk is bigger than growth risk. This year and next year, inflation will be a major nightmare for China.

We have estimated that the decrease in exports will pull down China's gross domestic product (GDP) in 2008 by 2-2.5 percent; consumption will rise no more than 1 percent; and investment might be up 0.1-0.3 percent. Thus we have forecast this year's GDP growth rate to be around 9.7-10.3 percent.

Sharp decreases in exports pose big threats to employment. I estimate that about 3 million migrant workers in Guangdong Province might face unemployment each year. Industry upgrading is a positive structural readjustment, but it will be a painful experience.

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