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UPDATED: December 23, 2009 Web Exclusive
Overheated Housing
Soaring home prices become a concern for the Chinese Government as well as aspiring homeowners
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If they were to choose one word to sum up the year 2009, many netizens would choose "house" to express their sense of helplessness over soaring home prices, reported the Beijing Evening News.

"Due to the fact that I can't afford a house of my own, I'm sick, I lost my fiancée and I make my parents tired, because they too are unable to help me realize my dream of owning a home," one netizen named "run away river" said on the Internet.

Statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) show that housing prices in 70 large- and medium-sized Chinese cities rose 5.7 percent in November compared with the same period last year, and were 1.8 percentage points higher than in October.

Year-on-year secondhand home prices rose by 5.5 percent, up 0.9 percentage point from October, according to the NBS.

Recent data released by Midland Realty's Research Department analyzed the ratio between home prices per square meter of built coverage and monthly rental value per square meter of usable floor space in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen. The data indicate that housing bubbles exist in the three large cities, according to China Business Times.

The home-price-to-rental-value ratio is a common international practice used to measure the health of local housing markets. The ratio between rental value and home prices is usually 1:100 to 1:200.

The survey suggested that the ratio in Beijing's housing market has reached 1:500, topping 1:700 in some districts, compared with 1:400 in 2008, a rise of 25 percent.

In response to mounting public complaints about excessively high housing prices, the State Council, China's cabinet, said recently that it would curb speculative home purchases next year, possibly by restricting bank loans to the sector.

The State Council said at its executive meeting on December 14 that the government was considering measures and policies to cool down soaring housing prices in some cities, and affirmed that it would provide affordable housing for a large number of low-income families.

The cabinet promised to accelerate construction of housing projects for low-income families, aiming to help 15.4 million low-income households solve their housing problems by 2012.

Due to the fact that about 10 million families are still living in "shantytowns" in cities across the country, more efforts will be made during the next three to five years to improve living conditions for those residents.

Some experts say that China's property policy will not change significantly, since the government has emphasized the importance of stability.

But due to the expanded government plan, which will now help 15.4 million families by 2012 instead of 7.47 million by 2011 as planned in June, prices in first-tier cities, like Beijing and Shanghai, will fluctuate somewhat, and are more likely to fall than rise, Yang Hongxu with Shanghai Yiju Real Estate told China Securities Journal.

However, Yang Shaofeng, General Manager of Beijing Lianda Sifang Realty Co. Ltd. (Conworld), forecasted that monetary policy would be a deciding factor in whether property businesses survive. "With such ample liquidity, it will be difficult for real estate enterprises to lower housing prices," he said.

The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences said in a report on December 7 that 85 percent of the nation's households couldn't afford to buy a new home in 2009, since the housing-price-to-income ratio (the ratio of the median market home price to the median annual household income) surpasses the reasonable realm.

The housing-price-to-income ratio is expected to exceed eight in 2009, compared with a rational range between three and six, the report said.

But Ren Zhiqiang, President of the Hua Yuan Group, a Beijing-based real estate giant, takes issue with the claim that home ownership is out of reach for 85 percent of Chinese households. "The conclusion is not based on the status quo in China," Ren said on his blog on December 11, following the release of the CASS report.

"Housing prices in major cities nationwide are under rational control, though prices in a small number of cities are soaring fast. If rural areas are included, then it should be taken into consideration that several houses are available for one family in the countryside, and houses in some villages are idle.

"From 1949 to the 1990s, most residents in cities and towns got their first houses from the danwei where they worked, when China allocated houses under a planned economy under which houses were distributed as welfare. These houses, now becoming private by means of purchase by residents, accounted for more than 50 percent of all houses in cities and towns.

"If we add the 25 percent of commercial houses and 11 percent of private homes, then private houses in cities and towns exceed 85 percent. The rate is even higher than that of the United States. So the conclusion should be that 85 percent of households can't afford to buy a second home," Ren said.

 


 
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