In addition to the high civilian death toll, the U.S. military's ignorance of local customs and allegations of torture leveled against some U.S. soldiers have fueled antagonism between the U.S. forces and the Iraqi people. The image of the U.S. military has changed from a "force of liberation" to an occupier.

Anti-U.S. militant groups have arisen one after another. The chaos in Iraq has provided a haven for Al Qaeda and other international terrorist organizations. Iraq has become an important battlefield for these terrorist organizations and the center of the violent clashes in the Middle East. Although the U.S. forces have tried to adjust their approach to combat these activities and even managed to kill Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the leader of Al Qaeda in Iraq, in June, all their efforts seem to be fruitless.

Another important reason for the turmoil in Iraq is the heightened struggle for power among the different religious and ethnic groups, and even conflicts within a group. Since Iraq is a country with many ethnic and religious factions, the reconstruction of the country can be seen as a process of redistributing power and resources, which should include a political realignment and harmony among different ethnic groups. Thus, a simple transplanting of U.S.-style democracy to Iraq will not work. On the contrary, it will sharpen these contradictions to some extent and lead to more bloody clashes and vendettas.

The worsening security situation and struggles among religious factions have forced ordinary Iraqi people to seek security guarantees from their own religious or ethnic groups, which has strengthened their sense of ethnic or religious identity while weakening their sense of a national identity. This has prompted more conflicts between different ethnic and religious groups, creating a vicious circle.

In addition, the regional element has also played a crucial role in the development of the poor security situation in Iraq. To a certain extent, the redistribution of power and resources in Iraq not only pertains to the interests of the various ethnic and religious factions in the country but also affects the regional balance of power among religious factions and the security situation of neighboring countries.

The Sunnis look upon the political rise of the Shiah in part as the expansion of the influence of Iran, which will prove a threat to them. So, some neighboring countries with Sunni majorities are supporting the Iraqi Sunnis in different ways. It is reported that the financing the Iraqi Sunnis have received from their Arab neighbors has reached $25 million. The involvement of Iraq's neighbors in its political reconstruction has complicated the security situation in Iraq. And, in turn, the turmoil in Iraq affects the stability of the entire region.

Policy Adjustment Needed

The U.S. military operation has not only caused financial losses and a great number of casualties, but also damaged the image of the United States and weakened its comprehensive strength. The result of the November midterm election in the United States further proved that the majority of the U.S. public considers the Bush administration's Iraq policy a failure.

The 10-member Iraq Study Group led by former U.S. Secretary of State James A. Baker III and former congressman Lee H. Hamilton has presented suggestions to President Bush on how to resolve the current predicament. The main points of these suggestions are that U.S. forces should transfer the task of maintaining Iraq's security to the Iraqi Government; U.S. troops should withdraw from Iraq gradually from the spring of 2008; and Washington should hold talks with Iran and Syria, two important power brokers in the region.

Although the Bush administration may not follow all of these suggestions, a major change in policy is inevitable. The administration is working on such an adjustment, and from the recent moves of the White House, the adjustment might focus on the following aspects:

U.S. forces would not leave Iraq in 2008, but rather remain there for a longer time, as Iraq is of strategic importance to the interests of the United States. But the role of the U.S. forces would be changed to help to increase the fighting capability of the Iraqi Army, letting the Iraqi Army play a leading role in maintaining the country's security. The U.S. Army would move from the front stage to the background, being mainly in charge of training the Iraqi Army and providing logistical and weapons support.

The United States may also take some measures to consolidate the status of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. President Bush expressed his support for al-Maliki in a clear-cut way. Bush also hosted Iraqi Shiite leader Abdel Aziz al-Hakim, a rival of al-Maliki, with a high level of diplomatic protocol, which shows a clear aim of the White House: It hopes al-Hakim will support al-Maliki completely. Only if al-Maliki's position is consolidated can he deal with the attacks against U.S. forces led by his ally, Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, and other anti-U.S. forces and clashes among different religious factions.

Recently, U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney visited some Persian Gulf nations, which was aimed at lobbying Iraq's Sunni neighbors to persuade Sunni anti-U.S. forces in Iraq to end their violent activities and participate in the political reconstruction of Iraq.

Since Bush does not believe that Iran and Syria will help the United States, he is unlikely to seek the help of those two countries. But the White House may ask the European Union to expand its involvement in the Iraq issue or seek wider cooperation with the United Nations. Of course, Washington would not oppose any cooperation between the Iraqi Government and other countries in the region, including Iran and Syria, which would contribute to the stability of Iraq.

Considering the complexity of the situation and the varying interests of the different sides, while the United States may take some new measures to try to resolve the problem of Iraq, the future does not seem optimistic.

The author is a researcher at the China Institute of International Studies