Toward a new relationship

There are several reasons for the stalemate in China-Japan relations during Koizumi's term. First and foremost, Japan was unable to adapt to the changes in the two countries' respective national strengths. Japan scored steady and rapid economic development after World War II. By the 1980s, it had risen to become the world's second largest economy. However, in the 1990s, as the economic bubble broke, Japan suffered a persistent economic stagnation, which resulted in a decline in its international influence.

China, however, has seen an average annual economic growth of some 10 percent since it adopted the reform and opening-up policy 28 years ago. While becoming increasingly engaged in the international economy with its share of the world economy and trade constantly growing, China has greatly bolstered its national strength. Some analysts believe that the Chinese economy is set to overtake that of Japan.

Finding it difficult to face up to the fact, the Koizumi Cabinet became suspicious of China's development. It worried that an ascendant China would pose a threat to Japan's status in the Asia-Pacific region. Given these concerns, the government was always thinking of ways to contain China in certain areas.

Moreover, right wing forces gained the upper hand in Japan, fueling the government's hard-line policy toward China. The negative effects of the Japan-U.S. alliance are also responsible for the chilly relations between China and Japan. Closely following the footsteps of the United States, Japan tended to regard China as a potential rival. The alliance was strengthened during Koizumi's term with his frequent visits to the United States.

Abe, however, reversed his predecessor's policy toward China when he took over. As a new prime minister, he was actually expected to find a solution to the deadlock in China-Japan relations, as it not only jeopardizes the interests of the two countries but also affects peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region at large.

Most Japanese, officials and private citizens alike, had expressed the view that the problems caused by Koizumi's shrine visits should be cleared up as quickly as possible. An opinion poll conducted by the Japanese Foreign Ministry in March showed that 77.9 percent of the respondents agreed that Japan-China relations, which had worsened because of Koizumi's visits to the Yasukuni Shrine, needed to be improved.

The U.S. factor also contributed to Abe's change of course. The Committee on International Relations of the U.S. House of Representatives held a hearing in September to discuss Asian affairs. During the hearing, experts pointed out that the deteriorating relations between China and Japan were disastrous to U.S. interests. The United States, which does not want to see Japan alienated in Asia, welcomes an improvement in China-Japan relations in the short term.

Moreover, Japan ended its economic stagnation with a notable recovery largely because of the rapid expansion of its economic and trade relations with China. It is in the interest of the two nations that they continue to upgrade their mutually complementary economic ties under a sound political relationship.

For China and Japan, 2006 was an eventful year, during which the climate for their relations turned from chilly to balmy. However, the road ahead is still bumpy. The two nations face a pressing task to establish a new type of bilateral relations by sustaining the positive trend that has just emerged.

The author is a researcher with the China Institute of International Studies