impacts of sea level rise.

2.1.3 Coal-dominated energy mix

China's primary energy mix is dominated by coal. In 2005, the primary energy production in China was 2.061 billion tce, of which raw coal accounted for as high as 76.4 percent. For the same year, China's total primary energy consumption was 2.233 billion tce, among which, the share of coal was 68.9 percent, oil 21 percent, and natural gas, hydropower, nuclear power, wind power and solar energy 10.1 percent; while the shares of coal, oil, and natural gas, hydropower and nuclear power in the world primary energy consumption were 27.8 percent, 36.4 percent and 35.8 percent, respectively. Because of the coal-dominated energy mix, CO2 emission intensity of China's energy consumption is relatively high.

2.1.4 Huge population

China has the largest population in the world. In 2005, the population of China's mainland was 1.31 billion (not including Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan), accounting for 20.4 percent of the world total. China is still at a low level of urbanization, with a huge rural population of about 750 million, and in 2005, urban population accounted for only 43 percent of the national total population, lower than the world average. Huge population results in huge employment pressure, with annually more than 10 million new labor forces in the urban areas and about 10 million new rural labor forces moving to the urban areas as a result of the urbanization process. Due to the huge population, China's per capita energy consumption is still at a low level. In 2005, China's per capita commercial energy consumption was about 1.7 tce, only two thirds of the world average, let alone the average level of the developed countries.

2.1.5 Relatively low level of economic development

China is currently at a relatively low level of economic development. In 2005, the per capita gross domestic product (GDP) of China was about $1,714 (based on exchange rate of the same year, the same below), only about one fourth of the world average level. Remarkable disparity in economic development exists among different regions of China. In 2005, the per capita GDP of the eastern areas of China was $2,877, while that of the western areas was $1,136, only 39.5 percent of the former. The income disparity between rural and urban residents is also great. In 2005, the per capita disposable income of the urban residents was $1,281, while that of the rural residents was only $397, equivalent to 31 percent of the former. Furthermore, poverty eradication is still a huge challenge for China. By the end of 2005, the poverty-stricken people in China's rural areas numbered 23.65 million, with the per capita annual pure income less than 683 yuan.

2.2 Impact of Climate Change on China

2.2.1 Impacts on agriculture and livestock industry

Climate change has already had certain impacts on agriculture and livestock industry in China, primarily shown by the two-to-four-day advancement of spring phenophase since the 1980s. Future climate change can affect agriculture and livestock industry in the following ways: increased instability in agricultural production, where the yields of three main crops, i.e. wheat, rice and maize, are likely to decline if no proper adaptation measures are taken; changes in distribution and structure of agricultural production as well as in cropping systems and varieties of the crops; changes in agricultural production conditions that may cause drastic increase in production cost and investment need; increased potential in aggravation of desertification, shrinking grassland area and reduced productivity that result from increased frequency and duration of drought occurrence due to climate warming; and potentially increased rate in disease breakout for domestic animals.

2.2.2 Impact on forest and other natural ecosystems

Climate change has brought impacts on forests and other natural ecosystems in China. For example, the glacier area in the northwestern China shrunk by 21 percent and the thickness of frozen earth in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau reduced a maximum of four to five meters in the recent 50 years. Future climate change will continue to impact these ecosystems to some extent. Firstly, the geographical distribution of major forest types will shift northward and the vertical spectrum of mountain forest belts will move upward. The distribution range of major tree species for afforestation or reforestation and some rare tree species is likely to shrink. Secondly, forest productivity and output will increase to different extents, by 1-2 percent in tropical and subtropical forests, about 2 percent in warm temperate forests, 5-6 percent in temperate forests, and approximately 10 percent in cold temperate forests. Thirdly, the frequency and intensity of forest fires and insect and disease outbreaks are likely to increase. Fourthly, the drying of inland lakes and wetlands will accelerate. A few glacier-dependent alpine and mountain lakes will eventually decrease in volume. The area of coastal wetlands will reduce and the structure and function of coastal ecosystems will be affected. Fifthly, the area of glaciers and frozen earth is expected to decrease more rapidly. It is estimated that glacier in western China will reduce by 27.7 percent by the year 2050, and the spatial distribution pattern of permafrost will alter significantly on Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Sixthly, snow cover is subjected to reduction largely with significantly larger inter-annual variation. Seventhly, biodiversity will be threatened. The giant panda, Yunnan snub-nose monkey, Tibet antelope and Taiwania flousiana Gaussen are likely to be greatly affected.

2.2.3 Impact on water resources

Climate change has already caused the changes of water resource distribution over China. A decreasing trend in runoff was observed during the past 40 years in the six main rivers, namely the Haihe River, the Huaihe River, the Yellow River, the Songhuajiang River, the Yangtze River, and the Pearl River. Meanwhile, there is evidence for an increase in frequency of hydrological extreme events, such as drought in the north and flood in the south. The Haihe-Luanhe river basin is the most vulnerable region to climate change, followed by the Huaihe River basin and the Yellow River basin. The arid continental river basins are particularly vulnerable to climate change. In the future, climate change will have a significant impact on water resources over China: in the next 50-100 years, the mean annual runoff is likely to decrease evidently in some northern arid provinces, such as Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region and Gansu Province, while it seems to increase remarkably in a few already water-abundant southern provinces, such as Hubei and Hunan provinces, indicating an increase of flood and drought events due to climate change; the situation of water scarcity tends to continue in the northern China, especially in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region and Gansu Province, where water resource per capita is likely to further decrease in the future 50-100 years; providing that water resources are exploited and utilized in a sustainable manner, for most provinces, water supply and demand would be basically in balance in the future 50-100 years. However, gap between water resource supply and demand might be expanded in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Gansu Province and Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region.

2.2.4 Impact on the coastal zone

Climate change has brought certain impacts on the coastal environment and ecosystems of China to some extent, mainly represented by the accelerating trend of sea level rise along the Chinese coast in the past 50 years, which resulted in coastal erosion and seawater intrusion, as well as mangrove and coral reef degradation. The future climate change will have even greater impact on the sea level and coastal ecosystems of China. Firstly, the sea level along the Chinese coast will continue to rise. Secondly, the frequency of typhoon and storm surge will increase, aggravating the hazards induced by coastal erosion. Thirdly, some typical marine ecosystems, including coastal wetlands, mangroves and coral reefs, will be further damaged.

2.2.5 Impacts on other sectors

Climate change may increase the frequency and intensity of the heat waves, hence increase deaths and serious diseases induced by extreme high temperature events. Climate change is likely to stimulate the emergence and spread of some diseases and to increase the magnitude and scope of diseases like cardiovascular diseases, malaria, dengue fever and heatstroke, endangering human health. Meanwhile, climate change tends to increasingly impact China's medium-sized to large projects, due to the increase of extreme weather and climate events and related hazards. Similarly, climate change may greatly harm natural and human tourism resources, as well as tourism security in some areas. In addition, global warming will exacerbate the increasing trend of electricity consumption for air conditioning and impose greater pressure to electric power supply.

2.3 Challenges Facing China in Dealing With Climate Change

2.3.1 Critical challenge to China's current development pattern

Natural resources are fundamental to the development of a national economy. The industrial structure and economic advantages of a country are determined to a considerable degree by its resource availability and combination. China is a country with a large population and at a relatively low level of development, and its economic development has long been constrained by the scarcity of per capita resources and it will continue to be so for a long time. The development history and trend of various countries have revealed the obvious positive correlations between per capita CO2 emissions, per capita commercial energy consumption and the economic development level. In other words, with current level of technology development, to reach the development level of the industrialized countries, it is inevitable that per capita energy consumption and CO2 emissions will reach a fairly high level. In the development history of human beings, there is no precedent where a high per capita GDP is achieved with low per capita energy consumption. With its ongoing economic development, China will inevitably be confronted with growing energy consumption and CO2 emissions. The issue of GHG mitigation will pose a challenge to China to create an innovative and sustainable development pattern.

2.3.2 Huge challenge to China's coal-dominated energy structure

China is one of the few countries whose energy mixes are dominated by coal. In 2005, 68.9 percent of China's primary energy consumption was coal, while the world average was only 27.8 percent. Compared with oil and natural gas, coal's carbon content per unit calorific value is 36 percent and 61 percent higher, respectively. China will face much more difficulties than other countries in decreasing its carbon intensity per unit of energy for mainly three reasons: Its energy mix adjustment is constrained by the mix of energy resources to certain extent; its energy efficiency improvement is subject to the availability of advanced technologies and financial resources; and its coal-dominated energy resources and consumption structure will not change substantially for a long-term period in the future.

2.3.3 Great challenge to China's independent innovation on energy technologies

One of the main reasons for China's low energy efficiency and high GHG emission intensity is the backward technologies of energy production and utilization in China. On one hand, there are relatively large gaps between China and the developed countries in term of technologies of energy exploitation, supply and transformation, transmission and distribution, industrial production and other end-use energy; on the other hand, out-of-date processes and technologies still occupy a relatively high proportion of China's key industries. For example, the overall energy consumption per ton of steel in large-scale iron and steel enterprises is about 200 kgce lower than that in small enterprises, and the overall energy consumption per ton of synthetic ammonia in large or medium-sized enterprises is about 300 kgce lower than in small enterprises. Owing to the lack of advanced technologies as well as the large proportion of out-of-date processes and technologies, China's energy efficiency is about 10 percent lower than that of the developed countries, and its per unit energy consumption of energy-intensive products is about 40 percent higher than the advanced international level. Science and technology are the ultimate resort for humankind to tackle climate change. As China is now undergoing large-scale infrastructure construction for energy, transportation and buildings, the features of intensive emissions associated with these technologies will exist for the next few decades if advanced and climate-friendly technologies could not be made timely available. This poses severe challenges to China in addressing climate change and mitigating GHG emissions.

2.3.4 Challenges on the conservation and development of forest and other natural resources

To combat climate change, it is necessary for China, on one hand, to strengthen forest and wetland conservation to enhance capacities for climate change adaptation; and on the other hand, to strengthen forest and wetland restoration and afforestation to enhance capacities for carbon sequestration. Forest resources in China are far below the needs for social and economic development. With the acceleration of industrialization and urbanization, the quest for forest and wetland conservation is increasing. Aridification, desertification, soil erosion, and wetland degradation remain as severe environmental problems. Land available for afforestation/reforestation is mostly located in areas suffering from sandy or rocky desertification, which poses a great challenge to forestation and ecological restoration.

2.3.5 Long-term challenges on adaptation to climate change in China's agricultural sector

China not only encounters frequent agricultural meteorological disasters that cause longtime instability in agricultural production, but also features low per capita cultivated land, a less developed agricultural economy and a very limited capacity for adaptation. In coping with the climate change, how to rationally adjust agricultural production distribution and structure, improve agricultural production conditions, control the prevalence of plant diseases and pests/insects and spread of weeds, reduce production cost, prevent the potential desertification expansion, and ensure sustainable development of China's agricultural production are some of the aspects that pose long-term challenges for China's agricultural sector in terms of improving its capacity of adapting to climate change and resisting climatic disasters.

2.3.6 New challenges on China's water resource development and conservation in terms of adapting to climate change

There are two objectives for development and conservation of water resources in adapting to climate change in China: to promote sustainable development and utilization of water resources; and to enhance adaptive capacity of water resource system to reduce its vulnerability to climate change. How to enhance water resource management, optimize water resources allocation, strengthen infrastructure construction, ensure the anti-flood safety of large rivers, key cities and regions, promote nationwide water-saving program, guarantee safe drinking water and sound social and economic development, and make a good use of river functions while protecting aquatic ecosystem are the long-term challenges on water resource development and conservation in terms of enhancing climate change adaptation capability.

2.3.7 Challenges on China's coastal regions in terms of adapting to climate change