The Reserve Bank of Australia signaled its confidence in the country's economic health when it became the first G20 central bank to raise interest rates since the global downturn began more than a year ago. But not every country is daring enough to break from their massive stimulus plans. The recession-stricken Western countries, in particular, may still need time to bottom out. In an article recently published in the China Securities Journal, Zhao Zhongwei, a senior economist with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, raised worries that the unsynchronized stimulus withdrawal may pose a threat to the stability of the global economy. Edited excerpts follow:

Australia's decision to raise its interest rates came as a surprise to the market. The move makes it the first G20 country to press the pause button on the cycle of interest rate cuts, and may also herald a global chain action to phase out stimulative policies.

Of course, Australia had every reason to do so. After avoiding recessions due to a strong financial system, the country is fretting over excess liquidity that could fuel inflation and asset bubbles. This echoes what is happening to some emerging economies that have shunned the ripple effect of the global downturn and now want to make an early break away from heavy stimulus plans.

But those at the center of the economic earthquake, such as the United States, Europe and Japan, are still reeling from the financial slump, and are likely to keep their interest rates at a low level in the months to come. Even so, it is still necessary for them to strike a balance between propelling growth and fending off inflation.

The Chinese economy is bouncing back quickly, but has yet to gain a solid footing. Before it adopts an exit strategy, more efforts are still needed to lick the wounds of the numerous exporters and jump-start private investments, as well as the consumer market. As a result, the People's Bank of China has pledged to maintain a loose monetary policy this year and at the same time keep a close watch over the risks of inflation though the CPI (consumer price index) remains in negative territory.

Such divergence of global exit strategies presents new headaches for economies around the world as they try to navigate the shaky and uneven global recovery. Long-term prospects of the world economy may depend on how to properly address those challenges.

Turbulence will first descend on the currency markets. Countries that raise their interest rates will see an inflow of international speculative money, which will mount pressures on local currencies to appreciate. This will surely stir up waves in the international financial waters, prompting investors to pile into commodity markets as a shelter from risks. The unintended consequence is that commodities' prices could creep higher, dealing a blow to the fragile world economy.

Meanwhile, for countries that lead the way out of stimulus, massive capital inflows are likely to force up the already frothy asset prices, watering down their original efforts to stabilize the economy. In addition, a strengthened currency would make their homemade products less competitive in the international markets.