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Market Watch
Business> Market Watch
UPDATED: April 17, 2009 NO. 16 APR. 23, 2009
MARKET WATCH NO. 16, 2009
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The slowdown was believed to be triggered in large part by the depreciation of Western currencies and China's shrinking trade surplus and narrowing FDI inflows.

Tax revenue

China's tax revenue came in at 420 billion yuan ($61.4 billion) in March, registering a drop of 2.1 percent over the same period a year ago. This is the sixth consecutive month that has seen a negative growth rate.

The tax decline was largely attributable to industrial downturns, foreign trade stagnation and wide-ranging tax cuts. Earlier this year the government pledged a massive tax reduction of 500 billion yuan ($73.2 billion) to shore up the sagging performance of the enterprises.

It will also make it a difficult task to meet the target of collecting 5.87 trillion yuan ($858.4 billion) of tax revenue for this year, said An Tifu, an economics professor at the Renmin University of China, in a statement.

But the infrastructure-spending spree is bound to relieve some of the pressure by increasing business tax revenues, An said.

Home prices

Housing prices in 70 major Chinese cities fell by a record 1.3 percent year on year in March, the biggest drop since the data were first recorded in 2005. Prices of new residential homes fell 1.9 percent, while those of secondhand ones dropped by 0.4 percent.

But lower prices led to a surge in sales activities as the total area of sold homes grew 8.2 percent year on year. Analysts believe that property developers will receive a boost from the credit expansion this year but doubt whether the industry has passed its worst given remaining uncertainties.

A recent report by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences has forecast that the price bubbles will continue to bust next year until most citizens can afford to buy homes again.

Bank loans

China's banks increased their renminbi loans by 4.58 trillion yuan ($670.1 billion) from January to March. The amount of new loans for March was 1.89 trillion yuan ($276.5 billion), up 1.61 trillion yuan ($235.6 billion) from the same period last year, the central bank said.

The credit outpouring was a result of the government's efforts to foster an easing monetary climate and breathe life into the flagging economy.

Analysts say the number of new loans issued this year would almost certainly outnumber the government-set target amount of 5 trillion yuan ($731.5 billion). But the lending surge would lose steam in the following months as first-quarter lending usually accounts for 70 percent of the amount of loans for the entire year, they said.

Money supply

By the end of March, the broad money supply (M2) was 53.06 trillion yuan ($7.76 trillion), a year-on-year growth of 25.51 percent. The narrow money supply (M1) was 17.65 trillion yuan ($2.58 trillion), an increase of 17.04 percent. Cash in circulation (M0) was 3.37 trillion yuan ($493.05 billion), up by 10.88 percent over the previous year.

Investment in fixed assets

China's investments in fixed assets jumped 28.8 percent year on year to 2.81 trillion yuan ($410 billion) in the first quarter, the NBS said.

Flying High

While uncertainties over the economic outlook linger, a close look at the airline industry-usually a barometer of the business mood-might provide insight on where the economy is heading.

The total passenger and freight volume for all Chinese airlines grew 1.3 percent from January to March this year, reversing last year's loss-making streak, according to the Civil Aviation Administration of China.

Because of their sensitivity to changes in demand, the airlines were among the first to experience the chill from the economic downturn. The industry suffered a painful loss of 25.2 billion yuan ($3.7 billion) last year, the worst in three decades.

To turn around the deepening gloom, the government has rolled out a series of relief measures, including tax breaks and direct cash injections into ailing carriers. The airlines also gained some momentum from using cheaper aviation fuel that saved operation costs and left them some room to lower ticket prices.

But it seems that an industry turnaround has not yet occurred. Although Chinese carriers handled many more passengers and cargo in the first quarter, their traffic on international flights continued to stagnate.

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