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Market Watch
Business> Market Watch
UPDATED: April 13, 2009 NO. 15 APR. 16, 2009
MARKET WATCH NO. 15, 2009
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"It's an inevitable step for the renminbi to first become a regional trade settlement currency on the path of becoming a global investment and reserve currency," Lu said.

But analysts caution that China still has a long way to go before officially internationalizing the yuan.

China should take a cautious approach to renminbi internationalization that requires full convertibility under capital accounts, said Zhang Bin, an economist with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, in an interview with China Busienss News. Given the fledgling domestic financial system that is vulnerable to market risks and short of ample investment instruments, renminbi internationalization cannot be a one-off endeavor, he added.

Carmakers Take Heat

China's chilly automobile market in March defied the downturns to recover some of its lost ground.

The 14 pillar carmakers that dominate roughly 90 percent of the market share reported sales of 1.03 million vehicles last month, Chen Bin, a senior official at the National Development and Reform Commission, told the Shanghai Securities Journal.

Meanwhile, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers also estimated in a report that sales in March would reach 1.08 million units, registering a vibrant 30-percent growth month on month. Sales in March could have set a monthly record, surpassing the previous record high of 1.05 million units sold in March 2008.

The rosy figures represent a huge leap from the latter half of 2008 when the economic slowdown contained demand and dealt a blow to consumer sentiments. Total car sales in 2008 rose a minimum 6.7 percent year on year, the slowest growth rate in a decade.

But a string of government stimulus measures have helped heal auto market woes and sparked a surge of sales activities since the beginning of this year. Halving purchase taxes on low emission cars and reducing the retail price of refined oil released some of the pent-up demand. The elimination of certain road toll charges also brought some potential buyers to the table.

Besides this, the government is also stepping up efforts to help carmakers innovate with new technologies and precipitate a consolidation in the fragmented industry where overcapacity has been depressing prices.

Analysts believe the turnaround will continue for the rest of the year, although a full recovery will still take some time. The government-set target of 10-percent sales growth for this year is achievable, they said.

Insurers Gain Access

The China Insurance Regulatory Commission (CIRC) has recently broadened its framework for insurers to directly invest in stock markets and corporate bonds without bank guarantees in a bid to further inject liquidity to the debt and stock markets.

The regulator said in a statement that only those insurers with a solvency ratio of more than 150 percent are allowed to directly invest in stock markets. Previously, small insurers could only access the stock markets through asset management companies.

The insurers also will be able to invest up to 15 percent of their total assets in unsecured bonds, including local government bonds, domestic midterm corporate notes and bonds issued by big state-owned enterprises in Hong Kong. The insurance firms should not increase their debt investments if their solvency ratio dips below 150 percent for two consecutive quarters, the CIRC said.

To ensure financial stability, the regulator also warned insurers about potential market risks and required them to tightly control short-term financing and refrain from over-leveraged financing for stock investments.

Analysts believe this move will benefit the equity markets and insurers who want to diversify their investment portfolios. But few small players will be able to meet the stringent entry thresholds, they said.

A Helping Hand

The Export-Import Bank of China, one of the country's major policy banks, plans to extend loans of 160 billion yuan ($23.4 billion) to China State Shipbuilding Corp. and China Shipbuilding Industry Corp. to help them weather the financial meltdown, said Zhu Xinqiang, Vice President of the bank, at a recent press conference.

The bank is also weighing a series of support measures for research and development, ship financial leasing and mergers and acquisitions in the sector, Zhu said.

After years of torrid growth, China is posing a threat to South Korea as the world's biggest shipbuilder. But the industry seems to be running out of steam amid deep downturns, reflected in a dearth of new orders this year.

The credit line could ensure that the two companies deliver new ships on time, but may not brighten the long-term outlook of the industry that relies on Western countries for 80 percent of its orders, said Li Wei, an analyst at the China Shipbuilding Economy Research Center, in a statement.

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