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Market Watch
Business> Market Watch
UPDATED: September 21, 2007 NO.39 SEP.27, 2007
MARKET WATCH NO.39, 2007
Foreign direct investment and fixed asset investment saw moderate increases in the first eight months
 
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TO THE POINT: The Chinese central bank raised the interest rate for the fifth time this year but this had little impact on the property and stock markets. Foreign direct investment and fixed asset investment saw moderate increases in the first eight months, partly because of the government's tightening policies. Gold futures will be traded on the market. Online traders are now required to acquire business licenses from regulative bodies.

By LIU YUNYUN 

Up, Up and Away

The central bank raised interest rates for the fifth time this year on September 14. The move was seen as part of an effort to relieve rising inflationary pressure and prevent the economy from overheating.

The benchmark one-year lending and deposit rates were raised by 0.27 percentage points from September 15, according to the People's Bank of China, the central bank. The one-year lending rate was increased from 7.02 percent to 7.29 percent-its highest point in nine years and the deposit rate rose from 3.6 percent to 3.87 percent.

The last interest rate hike came on August 21.

The latest rate hike came in the wake of the announcement of a 6.5-percent growth in the consumer price index (CPI) for August, which indicated serious inflation pressure according to internationally accepted standards.

"The move was predictable," BNP Paribas Peregrine Securities Chief Economist Chen Xingdong said. "Over the past months, the central bank has tried to check the rising prices of consumer products, which now is the biggest concern of the government."

The money supply grew 18.09 percent in August, exceeding the central bank's annual target of 16 percent. Urban fixed asset investment rose 26.7 percent in the first eight months of the year. These two factors also contribute to the inflation pressure.

"These figures in aggregate suggest a continuous strong growth momentum in the real economy amid excess liquidity," JP Morgan Securities (Hong Kong) Chief Economist Frank Gong said. Economists suggest there will be one more interest rate hike this year, but the frequency of launching adjustment measures will slow down.

"Even after the interest rate increase, the real deposit rate remains in negative territory," Chen said. "Since people still fear higher inflation in the following months, they will invest more in stocks or the property market."

Fixed Asset Investment Cools

Investment in fixed assets in China's urban areas rose 26.7 percent year on year in the first eight months, disclosed the National Bureau of Statistics.

The latest figure was a little higher than the 26.6 percent for the first seven months. Urban fixed assets investment added up to 6.67 trillion yuan in the first eight months.

Investment in the primary industry enjoyed a 42.9-percent growth to 78.3 billion yuan and that of the secondary industry rose 29.5 percent to 2.96 trillion yuan. Tertiary industries witnessed an increase of 24.3 percent to 3.63 trillion yuan. Economists believed the service industry should be heavily promoted, but the growth rate is still lagging behind the first two industries.

Investment in the real estate sector registered a 29-percent year-on-year growth in the period, hitting a figure of 1.43 trillion yuan.

Though investment is still running at a high speed, the July and August figures showed signs that it is cooling down. In July, fixed assets investment growth stood at 27.4 percent year on year, while growth rate in August was only 21.5 percent.

The cooling of investment demonstrated that the government measures to squeeze excessive liquidity out of the economy were taking effect. At the same time, it also means the government will not likely come up with new aggressive macroeconomic policies.

Moderate FDI Growth

Foreign direct investment (FDI) in China grew in the first eight months despite a slowdown of new foreign companies registering in China.

Overseas investors set up 24,848 new enterprises in China in this period, down 5.26 percent year on year, while their investment value rose 12.79 percent from a year earlier to $41.95 billion.

The number of new U.S.-invested enterprises dropped 15.12 percent, while investment value was up 0.77 percent year on year. The European Union posted a 7.65-percent decrease year on year in the number of new enterprises, and investment value slipped 33.3 percent.

During the first eight months of the year, the investment value of the top 10 countries and regions investing in China accounted for 86.55 percent of the total nationwide.

Those regions and countries were Hong Kong ($14.1 billion), the British Virgin Islands ($9.91billion), the Republic of Korea ($2.46 billion), Japan ($2.25 billion), Singapore ($1.64 billion), the United States ($1.63 billion), the Cayman Islands ($1.51 billion), the Samoan Islands ($1.12billion), Taiwan Province ($952 million) and Mauritius ($753 million).

Licensed, Online

Corporate entities and individuals must obtain a license before starting online sales operations in Beijing under new rules.

The Regulations Regarding IT Application Promotion of Beijing, adopted by the Standing Committee of the Beijing Municipal People's Congress, makes the capital the first region in the country to introduce such a requirement.

Article 26 of the regulation, which is effective from December 1, stipulates that an online sales business must hold a trading permit and publish details of the license on its website.

Meanwhile, e-commerce service providers should monitor identity information, legal business operation permits and credit records, and set up complaint centers to facilitate supervision of online trading.

Under existing regulations, online traders must register their real identities as requested by e-commerce service providers, but are not required to obtain business licenses. Online traders with Taobao.com, a leading e-commerce service website similar to the U.S. ebay.com, might be the major target of this new rule. Most of its online shop owners don't have business licenses from the government.

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