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Market Watch
Business> Market Watch
UPDATED: July 24, 2007 NO.30 JUL.26, 2007
MARKET WATCH NO.30 2007
Strong GDP and investment growth, especially the rising consumer price index (CPI), indicated signs of an overheating economy
 
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TO THE POINT: On July 19, the National Bureau of Statistics unveiled the first half macroeconomic situation for China. Strong GDP and investment growth, especially the rising consumer price index (CPI), indicated signs of an overheating economy. But the release of statistics calmed down stock investors and the mainland market declined 0.44 percent on that day. Insurance companies can now double their investments in the stock market, a move believed to help stabilize the market. The Chinese merger and acquisition (M&A) cases have grown in an effort to optimize industry structure. Meanwhile, as of August 1, taxes on resource products will be much higher. Battles between China and the United States over food issues further deepened as both countries banned certain food imports from the other, though it was noted that officials from both countries will meet in the coming months to discuss food safety.

By LIU YUNYUN

 

First Half National Economic Wrap

In the first half of 2007, the Chinese economy featured rapid growth, improved efficiency, a harmonized structure and more substantial benefits for the people, said Li Xiaochao, spokesman of the National Bureau of Statistics.

According to preliminary estimates, China's GDP in the first half of this year was 10.67 trillion yuan ($1=7.56 yuan), a year-on-year increase of 11.5 percent, 0.5 percentage points higher than the same time last year. GDP growth in the first quarter was 11.1 percent and that of the second quarter was 11.9 percent.

- CPI Rises Due to Structural Factors

In the first half, CPI grew 3.2 percent year on year (growth in June was 4.4 percent, or 0.4 percent growth over that in May), 1.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year.

Number of the Week

602.3 km

China's mileage of urban rail transport totals 602.3 km, including 22 subway and light rail routes within 10 cities, either in full or trial operation.

In 12 Chinese cities, 36 rail transit routes are under construction, with Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou having the most. There are 15 cities waiting approval for further urban rail transit plans, namely, Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Chongqing, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Nanjing, Hangzhou, Wuhan, Chengdu, Harbin, Changchun, Shenyang, Xi'an and Suzhou. In 10 years, these 15 cities will build a total of 1,700 km of rail routes with a total investment of 620 billion yuan.

 

In terms of commodity categories, prices for food rose by 7.6 percent, of which grain went up by 6.4 percent, eggs by 27.9 percent, and meat and poultry and related products up by 20.7 percent. Prices for other categories of commodities either maintained the same level or saw a slight rise. In the first half of this year, retail prices of commodities rose by 2.4 percent year on year, with a 3.2 percent growth in June. Producer prices for manufactured goods rose by 2.8 percent, with a 2.5 percent growth in June. Purchaser prices for raw materials, fuel and power rose by 3.8 percent and by 3.4 percent in June.

- Investment Growth Running High

In the first half of this year, investment in fixed assets was 5.41 trillion yuan, up 25.9 percent year on year. The growth rate saw a drop of 3.9 percentage points compared with that in the same period last year. Of this total, investment in urban areas reached 4.6 trillion yuan, up 26.7 percent, with 28.5 percent in June, a drop of 4.6 percentage points year on year. In rural areas investment was 809 billion yuan, up 21.5 percent.

In terms of industries, investment in primary industries grew by 37.5 percent, in secondary industries by 29 percent, and in tertiary industries by 24.6 percent.

In the first half of this year, investment in real estate development was 988.7 billion yuan-up 28.5 percent-or 4.3 percentage points higher than the same period of last year.

In the first half of this year, the complete investment in central and western urban areas amounted to 1.11 trillion yuan and 1 trillion yuan respectively, the year-on-year growth of 35.6 percent and 30.2 percent, all topping that of the eastern area which stood at 22.3 percent.

- Residents' Income Growing Steadily

In the first half of this year, the per-capita disposable income of urban residents was 7,052 yuan, a real growth of 14.2 percent year on year, or 4 percentage points higher than that in the same period last year. The per-capita cash income of rural residents was 2,111 yuan, 314 yuan higher than the level in a year earlier period, or a year-on-year increase of 13.3 percent. This growth rate was 1.4 percentage points higher than that in the same period last year, and 1.2 percentage points higher than that in the first quarter of this year.

- Money Supply Growing Steadily

At the end of June, broad money (M2) was 37.8 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 17.1 percent, which was 1.4 percentage points lower than that in the same period of last year. Narrow money (M1) was 13.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year rise of 20.9 percent, 7 percentage points higher from last year. The cash in circulation (M0) was 2.6881 trillion yuan, up 14.5 percent, or 2 percentage points higher.

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