Recent statistics on the economy have given people, not only in China, but also in the United States—even the world beyond—the reason for optimism. But has the world recession really come to a close and—more importantly—is a rebound now in sight?

Xue Yong, a Chinese-American assistant professor in the Department of History at Boston's Suffolk University, offered his insights on his blog at sina.com.

Edited Excerpts follow:

Recently, government officials, economists, as well as members of the media, have been offering increasingly upbeat views about the U.S. economy. But maybe we should not be so sanguine after digging out the truth behind the seemingly optimistic indicators.

As we all know, the United States is at the epicenter of the global recession. Nonetheless, America remains the world's economic superpower, and its giant demand for foreign-made goods has helped to revive overseas manufacturers. In this sense, U.S. economic performance shall inevitably exert influence on the Chinese economy.

It is true that the American economy is showing increasing signals of recovery. In the second quarter, for instance, the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) decreased by 1 percent year on year—a dramatically slower decrease from the 6.4 percent drop in the first quarter.

The real estate market, the main culprit of the economic crisis, also demonstrated a slight rally. Housing prices in the United States, meanwhile, witnessed their first increase in the last three years, according to Standard & Poor's Case Shiller home price indexes.

But I would like to ask where all these excellent indicators came from? For the most part, the stimulus projects by the federal government have made all this happen. Big government saved the day, according to economist Paul Krugman, a Nobel Prize-winner, in his column in The New York Times.

But everyone knows there is no such thing as a free lunch. The stimulus project could not work without borrowing money. It is estimated that this year's federal deficit will amount to $18 trillion—but any more than that will prove unbearable to the federal government.

The huge federal debt forces the government to pay off interest with taxpayer money. Furthermore, too much debt portends to undermine investor confidence in buying U.S. Treasury securities.

The empty national treasury will not be the only bad end result. U.S. consumers will remain shackled with a high household-debt ratio and most probably not be likely to produce large purchasing power anytime soon.

Some people say the government stimulus project is exerting its maximum power at the present stage, and that its influence will die out by next January. If this is true, will the economy fully recover in less than the four months left?

Moreover, 59 percent of American people believe the government is being far too loose in its spending, and predicts that it will get more and more difficult for the Obama administration to ask for money from Congress in the future.

For these reasons, it is premature to say the recession is over—when we do not know how much deeper it could go. Indeed, when it comes to making a judgment on the current economic situation in the United States, we should be more prudent than ever.