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Expert's View
Special> Coping With the Global Financial Crisis> Expert's View
UPDATED: May 9, 2009 NO. 19 MAY 14, 2009
Outshining the Competition
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China has vied for a remarkable share of international trade over the past three decades, drawing on its low labor and manufacturing costs and resources. With the outbreak of the global financial crisis, its export-oriented economy has delivered a heavy blow to its economic performance. Will China be able to use the crisis as a golden opportunity to outshine its opponents in international trade? Mei Xinyu, an associate researcher at the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation under the Ministry of Commerce, discussed this issue in a recent article on his blog. Edited excerpts of his comments follow.

Last year, Chinese exports were hit hard by the world economic recession and witnessed a steep drop from an annual increase of more than 30 percent in the last two years to a double-digit decrease. But I still believe that crisis also breeds creation.

The crisis may turn out to be an opportunity for China to knock out its international trade competitors, increase its international market share and raise its status in the international division of labor.

No country is immune from the impact of the global economic crisis, but we recognize that the enterprises in countries with more stable macroeconomies may have more opportunities to survive.

For the enterprises that have survived it, the crisis has served as a major means of eliminating their industry competitors. Although the total number of product orders drops, more orders flow to fewer healthy companies. For this reason, the crisis helped the companies that have survived improve their market share and increase their market status.

Once the crisis is over and the economy has recovered, the enterprises that have survived will be in more advantageous positions than they were before the crisis. Obviously, China's macroeconomy is more stable than that of other countries and will achieve better performance as a result of its competitors being weeded out during the crisis. In fact, this is happening now.

From the end of 2008, the exported products of some labor-intensive sectors, including the textile and clothing sectors, saw a much slower pace of decrease, while the exported products of advanced manufacturing industries, including mechanical and electrical products in which China was at a major disadvantage, took the lead in the overall export decrease.

Some people argue that slower decline in the textile and clothing exports was a result of the increase of export tax rebates. I don't agree with that. First, traditional labor-intensive manufacturing sectors did not suffer from an overseas demand plunge because they produce consumer goods rather than investment goods. Second, developing countries are the main competitors of China's traditional labor-intensive manufacturing sectors, while developed countries are the main rivals of China's advanced manufacturing industry.

The financial crisis has spread to developing countries, which has enfeebled their vulnerable macroeconomies and social stability. Many of the overseas competitors of Chinese exporters in traditional labor-intensive manufacturing sectors have gone out of business, and their orders have to be transferred to China. Overseas competitors in advanced manufacturing sectors still will continue to struggle for some time.

What should China do? I think the country should help its enterprises weather the storm by stimulating domestic demand and enhancing export incentive measures. China should also take measures to attract advanced manufacturing capacities.



 
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