ON THE DEFENSE: Traders at the 105th Canton Fair in Guangzhou have to pass body temperature checks before entering the expo from April 15 to May 7

The efforts to rejuvenate the global economy are jeopardized by the Mexico-led A/H1N1 flu epidemic. The situation in North American countries is particularly severe. But judging from current disease prevention measures and economic recovery efforts, the flu's influence on the Chinese economy can be kept to a minimum.

Although the country is confident about its economic performance against the backdrop of the flu outbreak, the Chinese Government must reinforce the implementation of its stimulus package to protect its economy against the impact of the infectious disease.

The number of A/H1N1 infections is continuing to rise. All countries are working hard to control the spread of the virus, which has dealt a direct blow to the global tourism and aviation industries and has further dragged down oil prices.

Over the past few years, the world has been keeping an eye on a possible influenza outbreak, as the disease is increasingly mixed with animal-borne influenzas. The good news is that worldwide disease control measures can effectively control the scale of the flu.

Researchers have been studying the impact of influenza on the economy for years, and their conclusions have differed greatly. Some believe the epidemic disease is a short-lived event whose impact should not be exaggerated. But other researchers argue the 1918-19 influenza pandemic in Europe was one of the major reasons for the sustained economic recession in 1929.

There are still some researchers who assert that the current flu outbreak might spur economic growth to some extent. He Fan, Assistant Director of the Institute of World Economics and Politics under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, cited the research of American scholars who found that the 1918-19 flu epidemic had stimulated economic growth from 1920-30. Each increase in the death rate of one person per 1,000 led to a 0.2-percentage-point rise in annual economic growth in the 10 years following the epidemic. He said many scholars have overestimated the negative effect of SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) which hit China in the spring of 2003.

From my point of view, the differences in opinion lie in different research angles. In the short term, infectious diseases will imperil GDP growth. Recently, the A/H1N1 flu pulled down North American stock markets, reflecting people's concerns about a slower economic revival. But in the long run, the prevalence of a short-lived disease cannot stop the pace of economic growth, and the economy will move on soundly once the illness is brought under control.