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Special> Coping With the Global Financial Crisis> Expert's View> Observer
UPDATED: February 13, 2009 NO. 7 FEB. 19, 2009
Forerunner of Recovery
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Third, the current bailout means more than just ordinary cyclical adjustments. It should highlight a shift of emphasis back to the real economy. But if the consumer market, which makes up more than 70 percent of the U.S. economy, falls apart, the economy would have to pay an even higher price for its rehabilitation.

Fiscal room

A prolonged economic boom in recent years has brought China stable fiscal revenue, which has amounted to an unmatched fiscal capacity and budget flexibility. This made it achievable for the country to spend its way out of trouble by improving its social insurance system, increasing farmers' incomes and propping up the consumer market.

After slashing its interest rates to nearly zero, U.S. policy-makers turned to fiscal instruments. But the country's fiscal deficit had risen to a record 10 percent of its GDP in 2008, leaving little fiscal room for a government bailout. The policies of U.S. President Barack Obama are expected to further widen the fiscal deficit, further aggravating the economic imbalance.

In Europe, fiscal policies are also walking on a tightrope. To stabilize the euro, all the member countries in the eurozone were required to cap their fiscal deficits at less than 3 percent of their GDPs. But when the sharp contraction descended on Europe, they sought fiscal expansion in a desperate move to dissipate downturns, putting the euro's stability at stake.

Besides this, the developed countries lack the firm backstop for the economy that China enjoys-high private savings. China has a high savings rate of more than 40 percent, giving it ample private funds at its disposal to reverse the downward economic spiral.

By contrast, the savings rate in the United States is nearly zero, leaving the government alone in fighting off downturns. Of course, we should also keep an eye on changes in the U.S. savings rate that might impact the global economic climate.

Financial strength

China's financial stability will also help heal the economy of its ailments. After a complete revamp, the country's financial system has become more resilient and relatively insulated from the financial crisis. Moreover, a financial system could also help usher through the monetary stimulus policies effectively.

In striking contrast, the financial markets of the Western world are totally gummed up, with banks, capital markets and interbank borrowing markets shaken to their cores. They themselves are in dire need of government bailouts, not to mention any support for the real economy.

At the beginning of this year, U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke called on the Obama administration to double its efforts to rescue the financial sector, underscoring the weighty importance of and deep loopholes in the financial system. I think Bernanke also likely meant that Western countries should put their financial systems ahead of their economic recuperation agendas. If so, the Western economies will not start to rebound until their financial industries regain health. Although Bernanke's opinion may not necessarily represent the actual strategy of the U.S. Government, it is clear that a broken financial system would hamper its revitalization.

 

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