China's foreign trade sector steers a rosy path of growth, though clouds are already gathering over its future prospects.
In the first 10 months of 2011, China's exports totaled $1.55 trillion, growing 22 percent year on year, while imports climbed 26.9 percent to reach $1.43 trillion, said the General Administration of Customs. The trade surplus stood at $124 billion, shrinking 15.4 percent from a year ago.
In October alone, exports went up 15.9 percent to $157.49 billion. The growth rate was the lowest in eight months. Imports amounted to $140.46 billion, up 28.7 percent. The trade surplus dropped 36.5 percent from the previous year to $17.03 billion.
The import buoyancy was attributable to the resilience of the Chinese economy, strong domestic demands and policy incentives to encourage imports, said Zhang Yansheng, Director of the Institute of Foreign Economics Research under the National Development and Reform Commission.
Lu Ting, an economist with the Bank of America Merrill Lynch, warned there was a growing risk of a break-up of the eurozone, which could trigger a sudden collapse in the global financial system.
"If that happens, China's export growth could slump," Lu said.
Liu Ligang, an economist with the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group, also held a gloomy review, saying China's exports could slide to single-digit growth in the coming two months.
"Moreover, a significant decline in exports would affect many industries and fan the unemployment problem," he said. |