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ECONOMY
Weekly Watch> WEEKLY WATCH NO. 20, 2011> ECONOMY
UPDATED: May 13, 2011 NO. 20 MAY 19, 2011
MARKET WATCH NO. 20, 2011
By HU YUE
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TO THE POINT: Economic data for April have been released. Inflation jitters seem to be easing a little, but risks still loom large. On the trade front, exporters recoup their strength, but imports have lost some steam in part due to waning domestic demands. Investment and consumption maintain momentum, both growing at double-digit growth rates. Internet giant Tencent buys into movie maker Huayi, which is expected to benefit both sides.

April Figures

CPI and PPI

The consumer price index (CPI), a barometer for inflation, rose 5.3 percent in April from a year ago, 0.1 percentage point lower than that of March, said the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

The index was driven up largely by food prices, which skyrocketed 11.5 percent year on year. Residential costs went up 6.1 percent.

The producer price index (PPI), a major measure of inflation at the wholesale level, went up 6.8 percent in April, but down from 7.3 percent the previous month.

"Government measures to control consumer prices are taking effect, though inflation pressures linger," said NBS spokesman Sheng Laiyun.

"Imported inflation remains a headache as global commodities prices creep up," he said. "Meanwhile, domestic costs inflation takes hold due to increased prices of labor and raw materials."

Price pressures are still uncomfortably strong, but there are some signs in the data that policy measures put in place over the last six months are having an impact, said Brian Jackson, economist with Royal Bank of Scotland in Hong Kong.

Jackson said inflation remained high enough to warrant two more increases by the central bank in interest rates and further yuan appreciation against the U.S. dollar.

Foreign trade

China's foreign trade continued to improve in April, though imports were moderate.

In April, foreign trade totaled $300 billion, soaring 25.9 percent from a year ago, said the General Administration of Customs. Of this total, exports edged up 29.9 percent year on year to $155.7 billion, while imports totaled $144.3 billion, up 21.8 percent, slowing from 27.3 percent in March. The April trade surplus came in at $11.43 billion, reversing a trade deficit of $1.02 billion in the January-to-March period.

China's export growth is "still quite robust," spurred by Japanese imports of consumer staples after the earthquake, said a report by the Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

"The slowing import growth might worry some investors who are concerned about an economic hard landing in China," said Ting Lu, an economist at the bank. "China's export growth is definitely positive, which displays strong resilience under the headwinds of rising labor costs, rising interest rates, appreciation of the yuan and surging raw material prices."

Zuo Xiaolei, chief economist with the China Galaxy Securities Co. Ltd. believed a slack in imports was in part because of a high comparison base in the same period last year.

It also reflected waning domestic demands as the broader economy loses some momentum, he said.

For the entire year, China will see its trade surplus shrink to around $120 billion, compared with $183.1 billion in 2010, said Peng Wensheng, chief economist at the China International Capital Corp. Ltd.

Money supply

The broad money supply (M2), which covers cash in circulation and all deposits, increased 15.3 percent from a year ago to 75.73 trillion yuan ($11.7 trillion) by the end of April, said the central bank.

Bank lending

New loans denominated in the yuan totaled 739.6 billion yuan ($113.8 billion) in April, compared with 679.4 billion yuan ($103.7 billion) in March, said the central bank.

The April figure brought the amount in the first four months to nearly 2.98 trillion yuan ($457.06 billion), a decrease of more than 390 billion yuan ($58.82 billion) from the same period last year.

The latest data indicated the economy is cooling and credit growth is stabilizing thanks to strict and continuous control on lending, said E Yongjian, an economist with Shanghai-based Bank of Communications Ltd.

In a bid to tame inflation, the central bank has required commercial banks to slow the pace of lending and raised the reserve requirement ratio five times this year, punching the banks' ability to lend.

Fixed-asset investment

Urban fixed-asset investment in the first four months went up 25.4 percent year on year to reach 6.27 trillion yuan ($964.6 billion). The investments in property development totaled 1.33 trillion yuan ($204.6 billion) from January to April, up 34.3 percent from the same period of last year.

Retail sales

Retail sales of consumer goods stood at 1.36 trillion yuan ($209.2 billion) in April, climbing 17.1 percent from the same period last year. The growth rate, however, was 0.3 percentage points lower than in March.

NBS spokesman Sheng Laiyun said the slowdown was because the government has rolled back some incentives for consumption this year. Sales of autos, home appliances and furniture, for example, decreased significantly, he said.

But the long-term outlook remains promising as the economic take-off accelerates wage growth, he said.

Industrial added value

The industrial added value rose 13.4 percent year on year in April, down from March's 14.8-percent growth.

"In the short term, power shortages in some provinces will slow growth in some heavy industries, including cement, non-ferrous metal, iron and steel, and chemical sectors," said Wang Tao, chief China economist with the UBS Investment Bank.

Wang said the risk of severe nationwide power shortages that would damage China's growth engine, was slim.

Fiscal revenue

Fiscal revenues of the country jumped 31.4 percent year on year to reach 3.62 trillion yuan ($556.9 billion) in the first four months of 2011, said the Ministry of Finance.

In April alone, fiscal revenues stood at 1.01 trillion yuan ($155.4 billion) in April, up 27.2 percent from a year earlier.

A Win-win Deal

By buying into film giant Huayi Brothers Media Corp., China's Internet behemoth Tencent Holdings Ltd. takes a solid step to expand beyond its traditional Internet businesses.

Tencent is set to pay 450 million yuan ($69 million) for a 4.6-percent stake to become the largest institutional shareholder in Huayi.

Huayi is dubbed "China's Warner Brothers of tomorrow" for the leading role it plays in the domestic movie industry. It now accounts for around 30 percent of movie production and distribution in the country.

"The investment is a strategic partnership that will allow new attempts from both sides to combine the film industry with the new media sector," said Liu Chiping, President of Tencent.

"Huayi Brothers is shifting from film and TV drama production to new media sectors," said Wang Zhongjun, Chairman of Huayi. "Tencent's rich experience in customer service and product innovation will provide synergies for both companies in our future development."

Dick Wei, an analyst at JPMorgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Ltd., said the deal would give Tencent "more media influence" as the company widened and diversified its business.

Zhao Yujie, an analyst at the China Merchants Co. Ltd., said the tie-up could help Tencent carve out a niche in the fast-growing and increasingly competitive online video market.

Huayi could also benefit from solid customer base of Tencent, he said. Active user accounts of the QQ instant messaging service totaled 647.6 million at the end of December 2010.



 
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