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ECONOMY
Weekly Watch> WEEKLY WATCH NO. 32, 2010> ECONOMY
UPDATED: August 6, 2010 NO. 32 AUGUST 12, 2010
MARKET WATCH NO. 32, 2010
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TO THE POINT: The manufacturing sector of the country loses some steam as indicated by the slowing PMI in July. China Investment Corp. reaped a bumper harvest from investments overseas last year, drawing strength from the global economic recovery. Chinese automaker Geely completed its purchase of Volvo, a landmark step toward making a global footprint. The aviation industry witnesses a substantial turnaround with air traffic surging in the first half of 2010. Meanwhile, 264 firms listed on the Chinese mainland reported a combined profit of 22.8 billion yuan ($3.4 billion) in the first half of this year, growing nearly 50 percent from a year earlier. IMAX is increasing its presence in the Chinese market where the movie industry is burning hot.

By HU YUE

Manufacturing Slackens

The momentum of the manufacturing sector showed signs of wearing off in July, raising concerns over an economic slowdown.

The purchasing managers index (PMI), a comprehensive gauge of industrial activity, eased 0.9 percentage points from a month earlier to 51.2 percent in July, said the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing.

A reading above 50 points indicates expansion, and it has stood above 50 points for 17 straight months. However, the index is down for the third consecutive month and is at its lowest since February 2009, when it fell below 50.

CIC Fares Well

The China Investment Corp. (CIC), the $200-billion sovereign wealth fund, is cashing in on the global economic recovery.

The investment powerhouse logged a net profit of $41.66 billion in 2009, almost double that in 2008. The return on capital stood at 12.9 percent, surging from 6.8 percent the previous year. This was the second annual financial report since it was established in September 2007.

By the end of 2009, CIC had invested $79 billion in overseas assets, including 36 percent of equities, 32 percent of cash funds, 26 percent of fixed-income securities and 6 percent of alternative investments. The return on the overseas portfolio for 2009 was 11.7 percent, compared to negative 2.1 percent in 2008.

"We have significantly diversified investments with an emphasis on publicly traded equities and debt securities as well as a series of direct investments in high-quality companies, including interests in infrastructure and clean and renewable energy projects," said Lou Jiwei, Chairman and CEO of CIC. "The good return is a testament to such strategies and we have confidence for a rosy outlook though uncertainties are clouding global markets."

In its latest move, it bought $1.58 billion worth of shares in the U.S. AES Corp., a global power company, in March. CIC paid $12.60 for each share. The deal gave CIC a seat on the company's board of directors.

Geely Buys Volvo

After months of waiting, Chinese automaker Geely Holding Group has completed its purchase of Volvo Car Corp. from Ford Motor Co., marking the biggest overseas acquisition in China's auto industry.

The final deal is reportedly valued at around $1.5 billion, lower than an earlier price of $1.8 billion agreed in March.

"Volvo should enjoy a much better position in the global market given its quality, technology, research and development abilities, and its brand value," said Li Shufu, Geely's Chairman of the Board, at the handover ceremony.

As part of its business plans, Li said, Volvo will strengthen its presence in Europe and North America while also taking advantage of growth opportunities in China.

Volvo will remain headquartered in Gothenburg, Sweden, with management having autonomy to execute its own business plan, he said.

A pressing task for Geely is to help Volvo jump back into the black, said Jia Xinguang, a renowned independent auto analyst. Volvo sold 334,800 cars globally in 2009, but still recorded a record loss of $653 million.

Geely is one of the Chinese automakers looking to step up their game by snapping up equipment and know-how from big-name brands, which they previously admired from afar.

But the industry still has a long way to go. Most Chinese automakers are either making foreign brand cars through partnerships with foreign companies like GM and Fiat, or focusing on the lower-end markets. Last year, Volkswagen sold around 1.4 million vehicles in the country, much more than that of China's top three—Geely, Chery and BYD—combined.

Aviation Booms

After a year of gloom, euphoria is returning to China's aviation industry.

The industry generated 13.3 billion yuan ($2 billion) in profits in the first half of this year, 2.74 times that of 2009, said the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC).

This was a substantial turnaround given the painful losses the industry incurred due to weak demand overcapacity.

Li Jiaxiang, Minister of the CAAC, said the market improvement stems from a significant surge in air traffic, especially cargo transport and international routes. In the first half of this year, passenger volume expanded 17.6 percent from a year earlier, and cargo volume jumped 38.6 percent.

In addition, the government has also handed out generous incentives, including tax breaks and direct cash injections into ailing carriers. In its latest effort, the Ministry of Finance on May 5 announced to free airlines of business taxes on international routes.

Looking ahead, the sector is bound for a takeoff as tourism heats up in the country. Per-capita annual air flight of Chinese residents is around 0.17, compared with 2 in the United States and 0.8 in Japan, indicating deep potential for the industry to grow, he said.

Corporate Profits Soar

China's economic recovery is in full swing—and evidence is especially obvious in the corporate world.

As of July 31, 264 firms listed on the Chinese mainland have released their half-year financial reports. The firms raked in a combined profit of 22.8 billion yuan ($3.4 billion) from January to June, skyrocketing by nearly 50 percent year on year. Their revenues came in at 267.64 billion yuan ($39.5 billion), representing a growth of 35.73 percent from one year ago.

Among them, 244 companies were profitable in the first half, and 19 firms spilled some red ink, with one company breaking even. The machinery, bio-pharmaceuticals, chemical industry and the electric components sector were the most vibrant as they accounted for around 40 percent of profitable enterprises.

But the economy was not without worries. The robust growth in corporate profits is, in part, inflated by a low comparison base from a year earlier, said Zhang Xin, a senior analyst at the Beijing-based China Galaxy Securities Co. Ltd.

IMAX's Big Picture

The Canadian format company IMAX Corp. is making a rush into China, hoping to carve a slice of the country's movie industry pie.

On July 21, IMAX inked an agreement with Guangzhou Jinyi Film & Television Group to open eight IMAX theaters in China, which are scheduled to be completed by December 2010.

IMAX is trying to solidify its foothold in China with an ambitious plan to increase China's total IMAX theaters to at least 65 by 2014. There are currently 23 IMAX theaters in China.

Prior to this, the company entered a partnership with Huayi Brothers Media Corp. to make three IMAX-formatted movies. The first one, Aftershock, is expected to reap at least 500 million yuan ($73.7 million) at the box office, a record high for any Chinese movie.

"China, Russia and Japan are our biggest growing points right now," said Richard Gelfond, chief executive of IMAX Corp. "The exploding number of new theaters and rapid growth of the middle class population in China have given IMAX new impetus to grow in this market."

The company's strategy is to penetrate first-tier cities by setting up more theaters and introducing portable IMAX theaters in second-tier cities, which have no equivalent infrastructure available yet. Portable theaters, as Gelfond described, are like the bubble over a tennis complex, which can be blown up temporarily and then taken down easily. With this technology, IMAX will be able to overcome the shortage of facilities in less developed cities and expand its presence further.



 
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