On the Chinese island province of Hainan, the economy is as hot as its tropical climate. GDP of the province in the first quarter grew a jaw-dropping 25.1 percent year on year, beating all other provincial economies.
For an economy trying to shake off the ripple effect of the financial crisis, this should be a reason to cheer, but the staggering pace of growth is triggering worries of its sustainability.
The biggest driver was undoubtedly the property sector that contributed 35.1 percent to economic growth. In the wake of a government program to turn Hainan into an international tourist destination last year, buyers and property developers poured in, forcing prices to shoot through the roof.
With history as a guide, such reliance on the property sector is a cause for concern. The island economy grew a robust 22.4 percent in 1992, drawing strength from a wild property rush. Only three years later, the growth rate fell abruptly to a minimum 4.3 percent as the real estate bubble popped, leaving the economy in deep doldrums.
The housing boom was also overshadowed by a weak economic foundation. The province's industrial added value reached 44.3 billion yuan ($6.5 billion) in 2009, barely 3 percent of neighboring Guangdong Province. Even its tourism revenue last year was only 21.1 billion yuan ($3.1 billion), 1.7 percent of the national total.
It is necessary now for the province to diversify away from property investments and strengthen efforts to propel industries and tourism, said Wang Yiwu, an economics professor with Hainan University. |