China's economy will not recover until 2010, as it needs time for government stimulus policies to take effect, a senior economist said Saturday.
Fan Jianping, chief economist of the State Information Center, a top government think-tank, made the remarks at a forum in Changchun, capital of the Northeastern Jilin Province.
China has started to increase investment in agriculture and rural development, energy conservation and pollution control, social welfare, environmental protection and major infrastructure projects.
These measures help increase domestic demand and would offset the impact of plunging exports, but some projects would not begin until late 2009, Fan said. "The policies' impact on economic growth would be obvious in 2010."
China's export volume might see a decrease in 2009 from 2008, which would further slow the country's economy, he said.
The world economy would not accelerate until enterprises return to their normal production capacity and start new investment, added Fan.
China's gross domestic product (GDP) growth slowed to 9 percent in the first three quarters of 2008 as a result of the financial crisis, compared with 11.9 percent in all of 2007.
(Xinhua News Agency January 10, 2009)