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UPDATED: February 15, 2007 NO.8 FEB.22, 2007
Pacific Partners
Despite their mounting complexity, relations between China and the United States will grow more stable The author is deputy dean of the School of International Studies, Renmin University of China
By JIN CANRONG
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Given the delicate issues between the two countries, such as Taiwan, China-U.S. relations are extremely complicated. To realize the stable development of this relationship calls for close attention from the leaders and insightful peoples of the two countries as well as a strong political will.

The Taiwan dilemma

The Taiwan issue is a focal point discussed in the three joint communiques that constitute the framework of China-U.S. relations-the Shanghai Communique, the Joint Communique on the Establishment of Diplomatic Relations (1979) and the China-U.S. August 17 Communique (1982).

China's basic position on the Taiwan issue is to achieve the final reunification peacefully. Before that goal is reached, it will be an important aspect of China's diplomacy to prevent Taiwan from formally breaking away from China.

The United States was involved in China's civil war, and continues to be Taiwan's most important external supporter today. Given these factors, the Taiwan issue has become one of the most crucial issues between China and the United States.

China and the United States entered into an arrangement acceptable to both with the signing of the three joint communiques, in which the former reaffirmed its "one-China principle" while the latter established a "one-China policy." However, shortly after the two countries formally established diplomatic relations on January 1, 1979, the U.S. Government adopted the Taiwan Relations Act under pressure from pro-Taiwan congressmen. This domestic legislation, which runs counter to the three joint communiques, is the legal source of the Taiwan issue that continues to affect China-U.S. relations today.

The Taiwan issue was marginalized in China-U.S. relations from 1972 to 1989. However, it has resurfaced since 1989 amid the emergence of politicians advocating independence in Taiwan.

Since the second half of 2003, the U.S. Government has been more wary of and exercised greater restraint on radical "Taiwan independence" views, as it comes to realize that the trend is not in the strategic interests of the United States. However, given its inconsistent and two-pronged policy toward Taiwan, the United States has only a limited capacity to check "Taiwan independence." With "Taiwan independence" fundamentalists pushing for an essential independence of the island in 2007, the Taiwan issue is likely to exert a greater influence over China-U.S. relations than ever before.

New characteristics

The history of China-U.S. relations since the rapprochement in 1972 can be roughly divided into two periods. During the Cold War, bilateral relations had a solid strategic foundation. Faced with the common threat of the Soviet Union, they had a firm determination to cooperate. However, the range of cooperation was not broad, mainly in the field of security. The 1980s witnessed the "golden era" of China-U.S. security cooperation. At one time, China was regarded as "NATO's 16th quasi-ally."

Since the end of the Cold War, while undergoing pronounced fluctuations, China-U.S. relations have taken on a more reasonable structure. A number of characteristics have stood out:

- Internal factors have come to determine whether cooperation or confrontation will dominate bilateral relations.

- The development of political and economic relations is uneven, with political relations constantly going through twists and turns and economic relations making steady headway.

- The governments play a less dominant role in the development of bilateral relations as non-governmental factors rise in influence.

- The power gap between the countries is narrowing.

- Elements in favor of the development of bilateral relations and those that hamper it coexist in each of the two countries.

- The influence of their relations has transcended the borders of the two countries to become a key factor affecting the international situation in the Asia-Pacific region.

- As both China and the United States, two "all-around champions," possess both hard power and soft power, their power comparison is rather balanced.

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