A spokesperson for Bird disclosed that the company is not planning to produce TV phones right now, because of the unpredictable market prospects and varied technical standards. The spokesperson is also worried about the availability of TV programs, a fallout of strict licensing.

Amoisonic’s Wang Zhiquan pointed out that mobile TV would not enter the mainstream market for the foreseeable future, as the present technology does not allow users to view high-quality TV programs on a small cell phone display screen.

The projections, however, must be weighing heavily on the minds of these manufacturers. Herbert Mittermayr estimated the number of mobile TV subscribers worldwide would reach over 100 million by 2010, generating revenue exceeding $10 billion.

In early March, Nokia projected that mobile TV, still a novelty at present, would become widely popular by 2008. The prediction is backed by survey results released earlier by the company: Of the 500 clients who subscribed to its mobile TV service on a trial basis, 41 percent were willing to tune into TV broadcasts on their cell phones for a fee.

Lacking an industry standard

Another hitch to the process is the current diverse standards used in China’s mobile TV application. According to Wu Xianlun, a technical expert at the SARFT, mobile TV service falls into two categories in terms of the operational model: “broadcast model” and “telecom model.”

The broadcast model has two operation modes. Under one of them, TV broadcasters provide both the content of the TV programs and the mobile TV operation network. After attaching a chip on their cell phone, clients can tune into TV programs on the phone display. The programs are free of charge, with the revenue of the companies mainly coming from advertising.

Under the other mode, TV broadcasters and telecom companies work together. The former is responsible for producing the programs and operating the terrestrial wireless network, whereas the latter can add interactive features and collect fees. Europe’s DVB-H and South Korea’s DMB are main industry standards of the broadcasting model.

According to the telecom model, media signals are transmitted via the 3G network, with TV broadcasters merely serving as content providers. The main industry standard of this model is Qualcomm’s MediaFLO.

A war between Europe, the United States and South Korea over mobile TV standards is imminent to some extent. In China, South Korea’s DMB is more widely used in practice.

SARFT has yet to decide on a unified standard for China’s mobile phone TV. As a result, various standards coexisted in China. A senior mobile TV expert warned that the potential danger of this trend was the lack of coordination among different regions.

“Mobile phone TV may develop in the same manner as China’s cable TV,” said the expert, who spoke only under condition of anonymity. “Every region sticks to its own practice with regional networks and programs. It will be difficult to unify different practices to form a nationwide market.”

A big consumer of electronic communications products, China has no technological prowess in this field. To develop its own mobile TV standard is likely to be an uphill battle.

Li Jinliang, an expert on the electronic technology committee under the Ministry of Information Industry, is concerned about the future of China’s mobile TV industry. As China does not have an indigenous standard, foreign standards will surely dominate the market, and the Chinese manufacturers will have to pay patent royalties to European and U.S. equipment providers, a replica of the downfall of China’s mobile communications.

However, Sheng Zhifan, Associate Chief Engineer of China Cable Network, a company affiliated with the SARFT, said it is almost impossible to charge a special agency with drafting a unified standard before mobile TV obtains a larger market share. Clearly a Catch-22 situation.

Liu Jiangping, an expert with France Telecom R&D Beijing, agreed. Different standards will be tested in the pilot projects approved by the SARFT, he said, adding that as none of the standards are perfect, the SARFT is attempting to find the standard best suited to China through these trials.