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UPDATED: July 17, 2008 NO. 29 JUL. 17, 2008
Poilitics
The rise of crude oil prices is reshaping international relations
By ZHANG LIJUN
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Energy always tops the agenda of important bilateral meetings. For example, at the annual EU-U.S. Summit, held in Slovenia on June 10, the two sides agreed to strengthen their technological cooperation to promote the use of bioenergy, clean energy and renewable energy. They also agreed to work more closely with countries by the Black Sea, Central Asian countries and Iraq to diversify the sources of their energy supply. Energy is a focal issue in multilateral forums as well. This year's G8 Summit held in Hokkaido, Japan, on July 7-9 focused on discussions about rising food and energy prices to lessen their impact on the international market.

Blamed for rising oil prices, the United States has seen its international leadership declining as countries lodge complaints over its hegemony and indifference toward the depreciation of the dollar. The International Energy Agency (IEA), an intergovernmental organization grouping 27 major energy-consuming countries, believes the rising oil prices are attributed to shortages in oil supply instead of speculation. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), however, argues that the supply and demand in the international energy market are largely in balance. It even suggests that the oil supply may have exceeded demand. It therefore puts the blame for high oil prices squarely on speculation. Despite their conflicting views, the two organizations agree that high oil prices are fueled by tense international relations and the weak dollar, for which both hold the United States accountable.

As beneficiaries of high oil prices, major oil producers, such as Russia, Iran and Venezuela, have been able to boost their international status with their swelling petrodollars. They have openly defied the United States on some international issues, posing a challenge to its leadership. Russia has refused to compromise on hotly contested issues such as the eastward expansion of NATO and America's deployment of missile defense systems in Europe. Russia supplies more than 40 percent of Europe's total gas demands. Europe has no choice but to rely on it for fuel. Iran, the most promising oil producer in the Middle East, has also reaped huge benefits. Taking advantage of its oil reserves, it can bring in large amounts of foreign investment and equipment to reinvigorate its domestic production and offset America's economic sanctions and political pressure. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad visited Pakistan, Sri Lanka and India on April 28-29 to push for an early start of the Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline project, which has been shelved for 14 years. The strengthening strategic relations between India and Iran have deeply concerned the United States.

Against the backdrop of rising oil prices, major oil producing regions have become points of contention for major world powers. Endowed with 65 percent of the world's oil reserves, the Middle East is the most important oil producing region in the world. High oil prices benefit not only oil producing countries in the Middle East but also multinational oil companies. OPEC and multinational oil companies have in effect entered into an alliance, with the former controlling oil output and the latter determining oil prices. In this context, the United States and European countries are bound to tighten their control over the Middle East.

The United States has always considered the Middle East as its traditional sphere of influence. It regards Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates as its loyal allies. The Bush administration's eagerness to promote peace talks between the Palestinians and the Israelis and beleaguered Iran is evidence that the United States aims to preserve its leading role in the region.

Strengthening coordination and cooperation to jointly address the challenges of high oil prices has become a pressing task facing the international community.

Today, factors affecting oil prices have become increasingly diversified. Neither OPEC nor IEA can determine oil prices alone. There is no denying that high oil prices are detrimental to most economies. Given their common interests, governments of different countries should work together to prevent private capital from interfering in oil pricing and to stabilize oil prices.

Energy producing and consuming countries should carry out wider and deeper cooperation than ever before. After decades of competition, they have come to realize that they need to join hands to ensure the stability and security of the energy market. It has become a common task for all oil importing and exporting countries to stabilize oil supply and prices through bilateral and multilateral cooperation and minimize the negative effects of the vulnerable international energy order on the world economy and individual economies.

The author is deputy director of the Department for Information and Contingencies Analysis at the China Institute of International Studies

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