On March 7, the European Union (EU) approved an unprecedented 800-billion-euro ($840 billion) ReArm Europe initiative at a special summit in Brussels, Belgium. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen hailed the decision as a "watershed moment," emphasizing its goal of reducing Europe's reliance on external powers—particularly the United States—and establishing a more autonomous and resilient defense framework.

With shifting geopolitical dynamics and U.S. President Donald Trump reassessing Washington's stance on global security, European leaders agreed that the continent must take charge of its own defense.

According to the EU summit communiqué, the Russia-Ukraine conflict presents an existential challenge, underscoring the urgent need to bolster Europe's military capabilities, reduce strategic dependencies and close critical defense gaps. The plan aims to strengthen the EU's defense technology and industrial base.

Anxiety and ambition

ReArm Europe is a direct response to recent geopolitical upheavals that have exposed vulnerabilities in Europe's security architecture. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, which began in February 2022, shattered Europe's post-Cold War complacency. According to a statement from the EU Delegation to the U.S. on February 25, the bloc and its 27 member states have provided Ukraine with approximately $145 billion in aid since the conflict began.

At its core, the plan enables willing EU members to increase their military spending through eased budgetary constraints, potentially unlocking an additional 650 billion euros ($707 billion). Additionally, a proposed 150-billion-euro ($163 billion) loan program would support military investments across the bloc—an unprecedented financial commitment to European security.

Beyond the figures, the initiative seeks to reshape Europe's defense landscape. It envisions an integrated European defense industry capable of producing next-generation military equipment while establishing joint procurement mechanisms to enhance efficiency and interoperability among member states. The plan also calls for reforms to EU fiscal rules to sustain defense investments without triggering excessive deficit procedures, alongside efforts to develop rapid response capabilities that reduce Europe's reliance on external support.

This is not Europe's first attempt to boost defense spending. "We are entering into a war economy, which is a change for many of us, and it will force us to invest more," French President Emmanuel Macron said at the Eurosatory military technology conference outside Paris on June 13, 2022.

Public anxiety mirrors government concerns. A June 2024 survey by the Institute for Global Affairs, a non-profit organization focused on geopolitics, found that only 6 percent of Western Europeans considered the U.S. a "very reliable" guarantor of European security in the decade to come. Skepticism is particularly pronounced in France, where half of respondents deemed the U.S. unreliable.

Trump's 2024 presidential victory has further heightened European concerns. His administration has shifted its approach to Europe and Ukraine, engaging directly with Russia while pressuring European nations to increase military spending and take greater responsibility for Ukraine's security. Additionally, Washington has threatened higher tariffs on European goods and expressed support for several far-right political parties, prompting the EU to accelerate its push for strategic autonomy.

Reality and challenge

Since the end of World War II and the establishment of NATO in 1949, the U.S. has been the cornerstone of Europe's security. Today, as transatlantic relations face increasing uncertainty, Europe must chart a path toward greater self-reliance.

The ReArm Europe plan primarily focuses on substantially increasing defense spending within existing security frameworks and military-industrial systems. However, this approach essentially directs funds to American defense companies and perpetuates Europe's reliance on U.S. influence, albeit in a different form.

A report titled The Future of European Competitiveness, authored by former European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi and published by the European Commission, the EU's main executive body, in September 2024, highlighted the predicament. While many EU countries have been ramping up defense spending following the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, 78 percent of the 75 billion euros ($80 billion) EU nations spent on defense between June 2022 and June 2023 went outside the bloc, with 63 percent of it going to the U.S. The report argued that achieving true strategic autonomy requires Europe to develop a robust and independent defense industry.

Former NATO Secretary General and former Danish Prime Minister Anders Rasmussen echoed these concerns in an article for The Economist website on February 24. "Spending it on tanks, artillery and fighter aircraft will not be enough. Europe must also ensure it can act independently of America," he wrote, emphasizing the need for considerable investment in air defense, refueling and logistical capabilities, areas in which Europe remains heavily dependent on the U.S.

However, EU members remain divided on security priorities and financial commitments. While the ReArm Europe plan received broad support at the March 7 summit, some leaders voiced concerns. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni warned of the fiscal burden increased military spending would impose on Italy's already strained public debt. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, following a meeting with Macron on March 5, stated on social media platform X: "While we may disagree on the modalities of peace, we do agree that we must strengthen the defense capabilities of European nations." However, he also stressed that these efforts should empower member states rather than "Brussels bureaucrats."

In an interview with Xinhua News Agency on March 9, Ding Chun, Director of the Center for European Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai, outlined three key issues Europe faces in building a security framework beyond NATO. Geopolitically, Europe seeks to reduce U.S. control but remains reluctant to abandon its reliance on American security guarantees. Industrially, Europe's defense supply chain is deeply embedded in U.S. systems, making it difficult to establish a fully independent military-industrial base. Ideologically, there is a rift between France and Germany's vision of a "multipolar world" and the "Atlanticist" approach favored by Eastern European nations.

At its core, the ReArm Europe plan is a crisis-driven response that largely depends on loans and more flexible budget rules. Ultimately, the decision to increase military spending rests with individual EU member states, many of which already face economic pressures. While the plan marks a significant policy shift, it also reflects growing European anxiety over Trump's evolving approach to EU relations.

The initiative underscores Europe's long-term ambition for strategic autonomy, but breaking free from structural dependence on the U.S. will take decades, if not longer. The road to independence is fraught with challenges, and whether Europe can truly achieve strategic autonomy remains a question only time will answer. BR

(Print Edition Title: Defense Awakening)

Copyedited by Elsbeth van Paridon

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