Friedrich Merz (center), the chancellor candidate of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Christian Social Union (CSU), speaks at the CDU headquarters in Berlin on February 23. The CDU/CSU bloc won the federal election with 28.5 percent of the vote the next day (XINHUA)
With all votes counted, preliminary results show that Germany's conservative bloc, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Christian Social Union (CSU), won the German federal election on February 24. CDU leader Friedrich Merz is poised to become the country's next chancellor.
The election results indicate a decline in the country's traditional centrist politics and a rise in support for both ends of the political spectrum. Wu Yan, an assistant research fellow at the China Institute of International Studies, attributed this shift to voter dissatisfaction with the previous government's handling of the economy and immigration policies.
As rightward political trends gain momentum on both sides of the Atlantic, the alliance between Germany and the U.S. may face new challenges, particularly on issues such as the Ukraine-Russia conflict, security and more.
When asked about the impact of the German election on China-Germany relations, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said on February 24 that China stands ready to work with the new German Federal Government to consolidate and grow the bilateral comprehensive strategic partnership.
"Germany and the European Union are of global significance. China is glad to see Germany and the EU play an important role in global affairs, supports the integration of Europe and the strategic independence of the EU, and is ready to work with them to continue contributing to world peace and prosperity," he stressed.
Political shifts
The CDU/CSU secured 28.5 percent of the vote, making it the leading party, while the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) surged to 20.6 percent, nearly doubling its previous vote share and achieving its best result in history. In contrast, while the CDU/CSU won the election, it recorded its second worst performance ever.
In November 2024, Chancellor Olaf Scholz dismissed Free Democrats Party (FDP) leader Christian Lindner from the position of finance minister, bringing an end to the three-party coalition between the FDP, Scholz's Social Democratic Party (SPD) and the Green Party. Scholz was left leading a minority government with the Green Party.
The three parties subsequently suffered heavy losses in the election. The SPD dropped to 16.4 percent (from 25.7 percent), the Greens to 11.6 percent (from 14.7 percent), and the FDP to 4.3 percent (from 11.43 percent), failing to cross the 5-percent threshold required to enter the Bundestag, Germany's lower house of parliament.
The Left Party, or Die Linke, however, made a "surprise" comeback, securing 8.8 percent, up from 4.9 percent in the previous election. According to Germany's international broadcaster Deutsche Welle (DW), Die Linke's success was driven by its appeal to young voters, many of whom were disillusioned with the SPD and Greens and alarmed by the rise of the far right.
The election saw a record-breaking voter turnout of 82.5 percent, according to the Federal Election Commission, a surge from 76.6 percent in 2021.
There are 630 seats in the Bundestag. The number of seats a party has is determined by their vote share, and a party must receive at least 5 percent to enter parliament.
The CDU/CSU will have 208 seats in the Bundestag. The next largest party is the AfD with 152 seats. The SPD has 120 and the Greens 85. The Left Party will have 64 seats.
While the CDU/CSU won the largest share of votes, they don't hold an absolute majority in the Bundestag. They will need to enter a coalition with other parties to secure 316 seats, the minimum for a majority, to form the next government.
Wu anticipates a "grand coalition" between the center-right CDU/CSU and the center-left SPD, despite their policy differences. She explained that Merz has ruled out any alliance with the far-right AfD. Since the end of World War II, Germany's mainstream parties have upheld a consensus that far-right groups must never be allowed into government.
Scholz's government was Germany's first-ever three-way coalition, but it proved unstable, collapsing last November following the FDP's exit, and triggering a snap election seven months earlier, Wu told Beijing Review.
Gains and losses
The SPD, Germany's oldest party, recorded not only its worst result in a federal election in over a century but also its largest loss of votes compared to previous elections.
Scholz acknowledged the "election defeat" and described his party's performance as a "bitter election result."
Polls indicate that the two main concerns for German voters were economic stagnation and immigration policies. Voters were deeply disappointed with Scholz's government on both fronts, Wu said, stating that it is Scholz that should take responsibility for the outcome.
Under his three-year leadership, Germany's economy contracted for two consecutive years, with GDP growth rates of minus 0.3 percent and minus 0.2 percent.
The election results clearly reflected voters' urgent demand for change, Wu said.
The AfD successfully capitalized on anti-immigration sentiment. Their policy proposals, combined with the failure of main parties to respond promptly to voter concerns, contributed to their rise. A series of violent attacks involving migrants in the months leading up to the election also fueled populist sentiment in the country. For most voters, their main concern was public safety and economic stability. When these issues are not adequately addressed, the rise of populist sentiment becomes understandable, Wu noted.
In her view, Merz's CDU won due to his preference for more market-driven, pro-business economic policies, with voters hoping he can revive Germany's economy and end two years of decline. On immigration, the rise of the AfD has pushed main parties, especially the CDU, to adopt tougher policies, such as increased police and military presence, stronger EU border security and faster deportations of illegal migrants. These shifts are a direct response to the voter demand for change.
Beyond Germany
Merz called for a new government to be formed "as quickly as possible" after his party came out on top in the national elections. "The world out there is not waiting for us and it is not waiting for lengthy coalition talks and negotiations," he said, urging the country to regain "the ability to act" so that it can be present in Europe and the world at large again.
On transatlantic relations, Merz promised to "achieve independence" from the U.S., saying that Germany had to fundamentally remake its security arrangements and end a decades-long reliance on Washington, given that U.S. President Donald Trump was "largely indifferent" to Europe's fate, newspaper Financial Times reported.
According to DW, Trump may be on the verge of negotiating a peace deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin on the crisis in Ukraine. However, neither Ukraine nor the EU has a seat at the negotiating table, although Trump has said Europe should be responsible for subsequent security guarantees for Ukraine.
U.S. Vice President JD Vance sparked strong reactions with his speech at the Munich Security Conference on February 14, accusing European leaders of censorship and suppressing free speech. He criticized Germany's mainstream parties for ruling out cooperation with the far-right AfD, declaring, "There is no room for firewalls."
Following his remarks, Alice Weidel, AfD co-leader and chancellor candidate, praised Vance in a post on X, formerly Twitter, writing, "Excellent speech! 'There's no room for firewalls!'"
Gunter Schöch, founder and managing director of strategic consultancy Débrouillage, told news portal Guancha.cn that Germany's new government must urgently define its role in a world where the U.S., China, Russia and Europe are key players. He sees positive prospects for China-Germany relations in this shifting landscape.
With the U.S. alienating most German mainstream parties except the AfD, Schöch believes this presents an opportunity to improve China-Germany ties. Like China, Germany and Europe are likely to prioritize globalization, resist trade wars and tariffs, and support global institutions and international treaties.
As transatlantic relations grow more unstable and unreliable, pressure to build a stronger, more united Europe will increase. Meanwhile, Schöch noted that China is increasingly seen as a stabilizing force in global affairs.
Ultimately, pragmatism and a more balanced geopolitical strategy should guide Germany's political future, he said.
(Print Edition Title: What Lies Ahead?)
