Ismail Haniyeh, one of the most senior leaders of Palestine's Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas), on July 31 was assassinated in Tehran, capital of Iran, according to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and Hamas. He was in the city to attend the inauguration of the newly elected President of Iran Masoud Pezeshkian—replacing Ebrahim Raisi, who died in a helicopter crash in May.

In Gaza, Haniyeh was succeeded by Yahya Sinwar on August 6. "We announce the selection of leader Sinwar as head of the movement's political bureau, succeeding leader Haniyeh," Hamas said in a statement.

Both Hamas and Iran hold Israel responsible for the attack, and more details continued to emerge about the killing of Haniyeh at the time of writing.

In his phone talks with the Egyptian and Jordanian foreign ministers, Badr Abdelatty and Ayman Safadi, on August 6, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said China opposes and condemns assassination acts that violate the basic principles of the United Nations Charter, infringe on Iran's sovereignty and dignity, undermine efforts to promote peace and make a ceasefire in Gaza increasingly unattainable.

Wang, also a member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee, pointed out that the key to avoiding the deterioration and escalation of the situation is to achieve a full and permanent ceasefire in Gaza as soon as possible. The international community should have a more consistent voice on this issue and form a joint force.

Who did it?

Haniyeh's murder in Iran came only hours after Israeli forces said they had killed a senior Hezbollah commander in a strike on Beirut.

In a statement, Hamas said its leader had been killed in "a treacherous Zionist raid," and vowed revenge. Like Hamas, Iran's top leadership condemned the killing, stating that Israel "martyred our dear guest in our house and made us bereaved. It also prepared the ground for a harsh punishment for itself." So far, Israel has neither confirmed nor denied its involvement.

"Given the intention and capability, Israel is the most likely suspect. Its refusal to confirm or deny the attack is consistent with its usual practice following overseas assassinations," Li Zixin, an assistant research fellow at the China Institute of International Studies, told Beijing Review.

The circumstances surrounding Haniyeh's death remain unclear as new details have continued to emerge. Both the Iranian Government and Hamas reported a rocket struck Haniyeh's room. At the time, he was staying at a residence for veterans in northern Tehran. According to Iranian state media outlet IRNA on July 31, an "airborne guided projectile" targeted the building at around 2 a.m. local time, killing Haniyeh's bodyguard as well.

But according to U.S. newspaper The New York Times, officials from the Middle East said Haniyeh was killed by an explosive device and had been "covertly smuggled into the Tehran guesthouse where he was staying."

The report stated Israeli assassination operations outside of the country are primarily carried out by Mossad, the country's foreign intelligence service. It revealed that the bomb had been hidden approximately two months ago in the guesthouse, which is run and protected by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.

"The bomb was detonated remotely, the officials said, once it was confirmed that [Haniyeh] was inside his room at the guesthouse," the newspaper said.

Li believes the assassination has "significantly escalated tensions in the region." The main concern now is how to prevent the conflict from spiraling into a large-scale war in the Middle East.

Will tensions escalate?

The murder of a Hamas top leader has raised questions about how, regardless of an air strike or installed bomb, Israel might have been able to evade Iran's defenses to execute such a brazen strike in the capital.

"Breach in intelligence and security has long been an issue for Iran. Despite having a comprehensive system, it is inefficient and hampered by sanctions, with outdated techniques and capabilities," Li said.

In recent years, the United States and Israel have intensified their intelligence cooperation with regional countries and established a comprehensive intelligence surveillance network targeting Iran. This has made it even more difficult for Iran to prevent espionage and information leaks.

Li Shaoxian, President of the Chinese Academy of Arab Studies at Ningxia University, on August 6 told China Central Television News that anxiety within Israel had reached "unprecedented levels."

"I believe the current situation is even tenser than in April, when Israel carried out an airstrike on Iran's consulate in the Syrian capital of Damascus, and Iran responded with strikes on Israeli territory. On August 4, Western countries advised their citizens in Iran and Lebanon to leave immediately. Meanwhile, the Israeli Government has instructed residents in the northern and central regions to stockpile a week's worth of drinking water and food, and prepare for potential power outages or disruptions in mobile phone signals," he noted.

Li Zixin assessed that the probability of a full-scale regional conflict remains low. He mentioned that Iran has explicitly stated its intent to use military strikes against Israel to establish deterrence, while also aiming to avoid an uncontrollable escalation of the conflict. "Thus, all parties are likely to exercise restraint," he said.

A broader context

Founded in 1987, Hamas clashed in 2007 with the Palestine National Liberation Movement (Fatah), long considered the dominant faction among Palestinians. It then seized control of the Gaza Strip, while Fatah remained in power in the West Bank, creating a division between the two Palestinian territories that persists to this day.

As a political and military entity, Hamas consists of several branches that handle political, military and social functions. The Political Bureau (Politburo), the highest authority within Hamas, is responsible for setting the movement's overall policies and strategies.

Ideologically very different from Fatah, Hamas refuses to recognize Israel as a state and rejecting the 1993 Oslo Accords between Palestine and Israel. This ideological divergence is a major point of difference between the two Palestinian factions.

Haniyeh, a native of the Shati refugee camp in Gaza City, was Hamas' leader in Gaza from 2006 until February 2017. Three months later, he was named head of the group's politburo.

Under the mediation of the Arab world, Fatah and Hamas had engaged in several rounds of negotiations aimed at ending their rivalry and forming a Palestinian unity government. However, these efforts have repeatedly failed due to differences in their political ideals and security concerns.

On March 17, Chinese Foreign Ministry envoy Wang Kejian met with Haniyeh and exchanged views on the Gaza conflict and other issues. In April, representatives of Fatah and Hamas came to Beijing at China's invitation for in-depth and frank talks on promoting intra-Palestinian reconciliation.

From July 21 to 23, 14 Palestinian factions, including Fatah and Hamas, gathered in Beijing for a second round of reconciliation talks. They eventually signed the Beijing Declaration, which calls for achieving comprehensive national unity by bringing all Palestinian factions into the framework of the Palestine Liberation Organization and establishing an independent Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital.

"Divisions among Palestinian factions have created obstacles to resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and given Israel an excuse to delay political negotiations with Palestine," Li Zixin told Beijing Review.

"Haniyeh was a key figure within Hamas who advocated resolving differences through negotiations. After his death, Sinwar succeeded him, and it is widely expected that Hamas will continue its strong military stance, which is likely to hinder internal unity efforts," he added.

"Nevertheless, the Beijing Declaration, a consensus reached by all Palestinian factions, including those committed to a military path, remains a guiding framework for future action, political dialogue, and reconciliation. While progress is challenging, the direction has been set," he concluded. 

(Print edition title: Waves Hitting the Gulf?)

Copyedited by Elsbeth van Paridon

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