Beijing has urged Manila to honor its commitments after the Philippines denied key elements of a "provisional arrangement" reached by both sides on managing the situation at Ren'ai Jiao, or Ren'ai Reef, in the South China Sea, just hours after the deal was announced and detailed by the Chinese Foreign Ministry on July 22.

Tensions between the two countries have been escalating since 2023 due to a series of Philippine incursions at Ren'ai Jiao, part of China's Nansha Islands, to supply the BRP Sierra Madre (LT-57), a tank landing ship that Manila deliberately grounded there in 1999.

In its announcement, Beijing confirmed that, following de-escalation talks, an agreement had been reached, contingent on three conditions: the towing away of the Sierra Madre, prior notification and "on-site verification" of supplies, and the exclusion of construction materials from those supplies.

"We hope that the Philippines will honor its commitments, work with China, and jointly manage the situation at sea," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said on July 22.

What's in the 'arrangement?'

A statement from the Foreign Ministry released on July 22 said that Ren'ai Jiao is part of China's Nansha Islands and China has sovereignty over both, as well as their adjacent waters.

For decades, the Philippines has kept a warship grounded at Ren'ai Jiao, violating China's sovereignty and the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC). Article 5 of the DOC specifically states that parties should avoid inhabiting uninhabited islands and reefs.

On how to handle the current situation at Ren'ai Jiao, China has publicly stated the principled position which consists of three points.

First, by keeping its warship grounded at Ren'ai Jiao for decades running, the Philippines has been violating China's sovereignty and the DOC, especially Article 5 which says the parties should refrain from action of inhabiting on the uninhabited islands and reefs. China continues to demand that the Philippines tow away the warship and restore Ren'ai Jiao's state of hosting no personnel or facilities.

Second, between now and when the warship is towed away, should the Philippines need to send living necessities to the personnel living on the warship, China is willing to allow it in a humanitarian spirit if the Philippines informs China in advance and after on-site verification is conducted. China will monitor the entire resupply process.

Third, if the Philippines were to send large amount of construction materials to the warship and attempt to build fixed facilities or permanent outpost, China will absolutely not accept it and will resolutely stop it in accordance with the laws and regulations to uphold China's sovereignty and the sanctity of the DOC.

Based on these three points, China recently had a series of consultations with the Philippines on managing the situation at Ren'ai Jiao and reached a provisional arrangement on humanitarian resupply of living necessities. The two sides agreed to jointly manage differences on maritime issues and work for de-escalation in the South China Sea, the statement concluded.

However, the Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) swiftly responded to China's statement by posting on X, formerly known as Twitter, rejecting the idea that Manila will inform Beijing in advance and allow verification of deliveries.

"We take note that the Philippines said it's ready to implement the arrangement it reached with China. We hope the Philippines will keep its word. We call on the Philippines not to backpedal, not to create problems, and not to do anything that would complicate the situation," Mao said at a press briefing.

This is not the first time the two sides gave opposing accounts over what they had agreed to.

In early May, a transcript was released of the supposed recording of a phone call between China and the Philippines' Western Command (Wescom) Commander Vice Admiral Alberto Carlos on January 3, indicating Carlos agreed to a "new model" for resupply missions to Ren'ai Jiao. Newspaper Global Times later confirmed the document to be real, citing a source "familiar with the affair," on May 8.

The "new model" allowed essential daily supplies delivered to the grounded warship in the subsequent resupply mission after notifying China in advance.

Based on the "new model" arrangement and humanitarian principles, China permitted the Philippine resupply operation, the source told Global Times.

Soon after the transcript was released, Carlos, who approved the "new model" with China, was relieved of his post as the Wescom, and replaced by Rear Admiral Alfonso Torres Jr.

The Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro and National Security Adviser Eduardo Año have denied there was such an arrangement. Año called the agreement "absolutely absurd, ludicrous and preposterous," while emphasizing in a statement on May 5 that President [Ferdinand Marcos Jr.] did not empower nor authorize anyone in the Philippine Government to enter into or commit to any agreement, understanding or arrangement—more so informal ones.

According to a column published in Manila Times on May 15, Francisco Tatad, a Philippine journalist and politician, cited a source saying that "it was specifically Año, who spoke to Teodoro and President Marcos Jr. about the Chinese proposal and gave Carlos the go-ahead" to talk to the Chinese side.

How did we get here?

China's Nanhai Zhudao (South China Sea Islands) consist of Dongsha Qundao (the Dongsha Islands), Xisha Qundao (the Xisha Islands), Zhongsha Qundao (the Zhongsha Islands) and Nansha Qundao (the Nansha Islands). They include, among others, over 250 islands, reefs, shoals and cays of different numbers and sizes, constituting inseparable parts of China's territory. Ren'ai Jiao is situated within the Nansha Islands. The activities of the Chinese people in the South China Sea date back over 2,000 years.

Under President Marcos Jr., the Philippines has taken increasingly assertive steps to claim its right in the Ren'ai Jiao, leading to several confrontations off the Nansha Islands.

On January 17, Assistant Foreign Minister Nong Rong cochaired the Eighth Meeting of the China-Philippines Bilateral Consultation Mechanism on the South China Sea (BCM) with Undersecretary of the Department of Foreign Affairs of the Philippines Maria Theresa P. Lazaro in Shanghai.

Both countries reaffirmed that the South China Sea dispute is not the entirety of bilateral relations and agreed to further improve the maritime communication mechanism, continue to properly manage maritime disputes and differences through friendly consultation, properly handle maritime emergencies, in particular, the situation on the ground at Ren'ai Jiao, and constantly promote practical maritime cooperation.

The subsequent "resupply missions" on March 5 and 23 have re-escalated tensions and a major escalation took place on June 17.

According to the China Coast Guard (CCG) that same day, the Philippines has continued to send supply ships into waters adjacent to Ren'ai Jiao. Global business publication Financial Times reported that the Philippine military has in recent months been carrying out a secret mission to reinforce the dilapidated military vessel grounded at Ren'ai Jiao to extend its service life.

CCG spokesperson Gan Yu stated on that same day that the Philippines broke its promise that it only resupplies the grounded vessel at Ren'ai Jiao with supplies for living.

In late June, Philippine Foreign Minister Enrique Manalo told a Philippine senate hearing that a working group had discussed the proposals earlier this month and Manila was hoping the talks could take place in July, newspaper South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported.

Manalo said Manila was committed to working with Beijing on developing "confidence-building measures" following a series of clashes in recent months.

Ding Duo, an associate research fellow at China's Hainan-based National Institute for South China Sea Studies, told SCMP that at present, it is hard to say whether significant results can be achieved. He added that both Beijing and Manila wanted to try to calm the situation, which he said was overheating.

"The Philippines does not want to go as far as a large-scale conflict with China or even war," he said, adding that Beijing wanted to "manage differences, deescalate the situation and maintain peace and stability."

After the interim deal between Beijing and Manila had been struck, Ding said on July 22 that the arrangement shows progress has been made by the two sides in managing frictions and avoiding a crisis at sea, which can help reduce misunderstanding and misjudgment.

The next task is to observe whether the Philippines will abide by the arrangement, or say one thing and do another, Ding concluded.

(Print Edition Title: What Lies Ahead?)

Copyedited by G.P. Wilson

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