World
Coming in From the Cold
Recent events shed light on the past, present and future of Sino-Japanese relations
By Wen Qing  ·  2017-12-26  ·   Source: | NO. 52 DECEMBER 28, 2017
The 13th Beijing-Tokyo Forum opens in Beijing on December 16 (LI YIFAN)

'If winter comes, can spring be far behind?" Such is the surprising nature of 2017 that the words of 19th Century English poet Percy Bysshe Shelley can be applied to the current status of China-Japan relations which, after five years in a deep, wintry freeze, are at last beginning to thaw.

This warming process was clearly evident in a recent poll conducted in both countries by the China International Publishing Group (CIPG) and nonprofit Japanese think tank Genron NPO. According to the results of the poll, China-Japan relations have been improving gradually over the past year, with most respondents suggesting that healthy, stable and harmonious relations between China and Japan are central to the interests of people in both countries.

Favorable conditions

The results of the poll showed that participants' views of each other's country, and perceptions of Sino-Japanese relations, have both improved compared with the data from the previous year. People polled on both sides viewed peace and pacifistic development as the most crucial aspect of future bilateral ties. Their confidence about economic and trade relations between China and Japan had also increased.

This upward trend, paving the way for a new era of bilateral ties, observers said, can be partly attributed to the recent, drastic change in international circumstances. China and Japan have mutually benefited from free trade and the open economy in the past few decades and now, against the rising tide of anti-globalization elsewhere, they share a responsibility to protect these values, said Hirohide Yamaguchi, former Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan, at the 13th Beijing-Tokyo Forum, hosted by CIPG and Genron NPO in Beijing from December 15 to 17.

According to Yang Bojiang, Director of the Institute of Japanese Studies under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), the Trump factor has played a vital role in facilitating closer Sino-Japanese ties. Under the "America first" principle which helped get him into office, Trump endlessly reiterates the apparent need for a "fair, free and reciprocal trade relationship" between the U.S. and other countries. As Trump has withdrawn from the Trans-Pacific Partnership and lambasted the unfair trade with Japan, Japan has begun to feel pressured and thus motivated to strengthen ties with China, said Yang.

Internal political stability and strong leadership in both countries are also believed to have contributed to this new appetite for collaboration. Japan's Former Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda, who also participated in the forum, noted that the current internal political stability in both countries provides an important basis for bilateral cooperation.

After the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC), President Xi Jinping was reelected as the General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee, ensuring the continuity of China's government policy. By proposing their plans for a new era, the CPC, led by Xi, reaffirmed their commitment to national development across society. In Japan, the incumbent administration looks for once to be stable, following Shinzo Abe's victory in the 49th general election of members of the House of Representatives.

In his keynote speech at the opening ceremony of the forum, Jiang Jianguo, Minister of the State Council Information Office of China, said that "on China's new journey of development, China and Japan should expand their converging interests and work together for a community of shared future for mankind."

Consensus

Numerous attendees at this year's Beijing-Tokyo Forum suggested that it is beneficial for both countries to synchronize their respective development strategies while enhancing cooperation in various fields such as intelligent manufacturing, health and the green economy.

These developments arrive at the end of a year in which Abe's position seemed to have shifted on the China-proposed Belt and Road Initiative. According to reports, Abe stated in a speech delivered to an international conference on June 5 that this initiative had the "potential to connect East and West" and that Japan is "ready to extend cooperation" on the project. It marked the first time that the Japanese leader had offered public support for the program.

Yasushi Akashi, former UN Under-Secretary General, added credence to this perceived change. "Enterprises from both sides should actively participate in programs under the Belt and Road Initiative framework and such cooperation could deepen our bilateral ties," he said at the opening ceremony of the forum.

"To step up cooperation under the framework of the Belt and Road Initiative is in the interests of both China and Japan," said Yang of the CASS. It is his opinion that China and Japan must join hands to build infrastructure and provide financing in third-party markets as part of the initiative.

Furthermore, both China and Japan are faced with the challenge of making adjustments to their own respective economic structures. According to Yamaguchi, China's economy is troubled by inherent problems such as overcapacity and high debt. He suggested that Japan's economy also needs to improve efficiency. These structural problems can be resolved only by reform, which will consequently provide more opportunities for cooperation. His remarks coincide with China's supply-side reform, which looks to tackle debt overhang, superfluous industrial capacity and housing inventories.

Through supply-side reform, China is making clear its vision for a modern, developed economy. After the 19th CPC National Congress, China committed to building the best business environment in the world, said Wei Jianguo, former Deputy Minister of the Ministry of Commerce. Moreover, he stressed that key areas of future cooperation should be expanded to the health and medical care industry, the green economy, and intelligent manufacturing, amongst other innovations.

"Japan has been troubled by an ageing population for years, and now China is also ageing rapidly. In the future, the two countries could expand cooperation in health and medical care services for the elderly," said Masayuki Kinoshita, a Japanese entrepreneur attending the conference. There was also suggestion that China's efforts to enhance environmental protection could also engender greater opportunities for cooperation. "China is switching from coal to gas heating in order to combat air pollution, whilst Japan is already the largest consumer of liquefied natural gas in the world and so equipped with the appropriate technology. This is an area our two countries could cooperate on in the future," he added.

Great potential also exists in the service industry, and with the development of new technology, and the integration of traditional manufacturing with automation and intelligence, this looks another likely field for future Sino-Japanese cooperation. At the forum, the innovation and vigor displayed by China's young entrepreneurs were highly praised by Japanese attendees, whilst Japan's powerful research capabilities was in turn highlighted by Chinese experts. Chi Fulin, a member of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, said that of the 300 billion yuan ($45 billion) overall volume of trade between China and Japan, the core components of mechanical and electrical products account for around one third. Thus, to lean on each other's strengths and collaborate on intelligent manufacturing will be beneficial to both sides.

Thorny issues

Whilst the signs suggest that overall China-Japan relations have begun to thaw, mutually negative assessments prevail on both sides, and societal support for increased official ties remains weak. Only 31.5 percent of Chinese participants admitted to having a positive impression of Japan when polled, an increase of 9.8 percent compared with last year. The same data in Japan stood at just 11.5 percent, up by just 3.5 percent on the previous year. Problems of history and territory are the major sticking points, on which experts and former officials conducted open and direct discussions at the forum.

Jiang said in his keynote speech that China and Japan should learn from their history and appreciate the value of today's hard-earned peace. "We observed the National Memorial Day for the Nanjing Massacre Victims three days ago," he said, "Not for remembering hatred, but to remember the dead and to remind everyone to cherish peace."

Many Japanese attendees were keen to avoid the discussion of such topics. According to former Japanese Foreign Minister Takeaki Matsumoto, if Japan refused to forgive the dropping of the U.S. atomic bomb or the U.S. refused to forgive Japan's attack on Pearl Harbor, then the two countries would never have established the close ties they enjoy today. Through bilateral reconciliation, they were able to develop alliances after World War II (WWII).

A view prevails in Japan that China's tenderness regarding WWII, when contrasted with Japan's forgiveness of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, portrays China as obsessive and narrow-minded, unwilling to let go of history. There are, however, some fundamental differences in the two cases which nullify this analogy.

Cao Weizhou, Deputy Director of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the National People's Congress, pointed out that Japan and China were in totally different circumstances at the end of WWII. Japan, in its role as aggressor, caused endless pain for its neighboring countries, while China was the victim having suffered under Japanese imperialism. Consensus in China is that it is irresponsible for Japan to maintain such a vague attitude towards its war crimes, and many remain steadfast in their demands for an official Japanese apology.

The frank discussion of these topics at the forum further contributed to the atmosphere of mutual understanding. Former Japanese Ambassador to France Kazuo Ogura said, "We learn from our predecessors that sometimes it is best to leave the problems of today for the wiser minds of the future to solve." Meanwhile, he claims that goodwill between people holds the key to sound relations between states. Enhancing the quality of personal exchanges, especially amongst the youth, is conducive to improving mutual understanding and trust.

Despite these thorny issues, peace and cooperation are still at the forefront of contemporary Sino-Japanese relations. Forty-five years ago, the leaders of both countries were under great pressure to restore bilateral diplomatic ties which ultimately heralded a new era of cooperation between China and Japan in the 1980s. Today we should never forget their efforts and continue working to improve the two countries' relationship, said Yang.

Copyedited by Laurence Coulton

Comments to wenqing@bjreview.com

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