Although the declaration was a multilateral effort, India was clearly a driving force behind both its content and framing. New Delhi's imprint is visible throughout, particularly in the emphasis on supply chain resilience, energy security and financial autonomy, all of which address India's specific vulnerabilities.

The declaration's most notable feature is what it does not say. It does not call for abandoning Western-dominated institutions, like the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. Instead, it calls for quota reforms and greater voting power for developing nations and explicitly calls for the World Trade Organization to be strengthened. It also does not call for a BRICS currency, but instead advocates for an interoperable payment system and voluntary local currency settlement.

This reveals an evolving dichotomy within BRICS. One faction, led by a vocal constituency in Russia, seeks greater independence from Western institutions, while the other, led mainly by India and Brazil, seeks greater autonomy within them. The declaration's language reflects a compromise: reform, optionality, redundancy and bargaining power within the existing institutions rather than a rupture from them.

India's position illustrates the pressure driving this acceleration. Since the Hormuz closure in February, India has faced exposure on three fronts: fuel, fertilizer and foreign exchange. The country imports over 80 percent of its energy and the price of urea, the country's most widely used fertilizer, has almost doubled, from roughly $510 per ton to $950 per ton. As India's import bill exploded, pressure on both the current account and rupee has grown.

Against this backdrop, India's actions reveal a careful balancing act. Prime Minister Narendra Modi publicly pressured Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Bishkek Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit in early September to agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine and again during bilateral talks on the sidelines of the 18th BRICS Summit. This intervention is best understood as an attempt to alleviate economic pressure, pressure Washington could intensify with its recently introduced secondary tariff regime of up to 100 percent on buyers of Russian oil, a regime that explicitly targets India. Against this backdrop, a ceasefire would begin normalizing energy markets and signal to Washington that New Delhi is willing to play a constructive role.

At the same time, India is accelerating the development of intra-BRICS economic security. The declaration's focus on resilient supply chains, local currency settlement and financial autonomy is India's longer-term refuge. Washington's pressure and BRICS' integration are two sides of the same coin: The more the United States exerts economic leverage, the more incentive India has to build alternatives—but alternatives that won't enrage Washington in the short term.

The New Delhi Declaration is, in essence, a response to the economic and financial pressures that are starting to mount as a direct consequence of the U.S. war against Iran. The explicit recognition of energy security, fertilizer shortages and food price volatility as strategic concerns reflects the reality that the Global South is simultaneously absorbing the shock and trying to insulate itself.

Whether this incremental strategy will succeed in buffering BRICS from Western economic leverage remains uncertain. The dichotomy between those who seek separation and those who seek autonomy within the system remains unresolved and likely to grow. But the direction is clear. The more the U.S. weaponizes the dollar system, the more incentive nations outside the West have to build alternatives. The New Delhi Declaration is the latest evidence that the U.S. strategy in West Asia is already reshaping the architecture of the Global South. BR

The author is a British geopolitical analyst 

Copyedited by Elsbeth van Paridon 

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