It was no surprise that shortly after taking office, U.S. President Donald Trump once again wielded his tariff stick, continuing the unfinished business of his first term: using "extreme pressure" tactics and the "America First" principle to "make America great again." The global market and political arena have once again been shaken.

However, unexpectedly, unlike last time, this confrontation has left some spectators disappointed. Within just a few days of Trump unveiling his "reciprocal tariff plan" on April 2, the situation already started to turn against Trump, with fluctuations in the U.S. stock market far exceeding his expectations. 

His rhetoric quickly began to soften, announcing a 90-day pause in the tariffs for countries negotiating with the U.S. on April 9. Doing so was a clear acknowledgement that the reciprocal tariff policy was already causing harm to the U.S. itself. He also repeatedly expressed a willingness to negotiate with China and, within a few days, proactively proposed product exemptions.

What may appear as pragmatism is, in fact, a reflection of shifting global dynamics and the evolving strategies of America's key counterparts. Rather than signaling a change in Trump's "dealmaking artist" image, these adjustments underscore the influence of external pressures and the complex realities of today's geopolitical landscape.

Disillusioned dealmaker 

The intense global response to Trump's renewed tariff push has come from all directions, including from some of America's closest allies. European partners, long considered dependable by Washington, have voiced strong objections. Countries like Canada and the UK—often seen by Trump as compliant partners—have adopted firmer stances, making clear their unwillingness to be sidelined in a one-sided trade agenda. Even within the U.S., waves of protests and growing dissatisfaction have signaled resistance to a return of aggressive protectionist policies.

This global pushback has, to some extent, constrained Trump's ability to wield tariffs as freely as he once did. His broad-brush reciprocal tariff policy, targeting as many as 180 countries, alongside a controversial tax calculation method, faces mounting challenges. As seen during the last trade war, such policies—while dramatic in presentation—often serve more as political theater than economic strategy. They reflect a belief in "maximum pressure" tactics that have become a hallmark of Trump's negotiation style, rooted in a nostalgic view of 19th-century trade dynamics.

Historically, most trade wars have failed to produce meaningful outcomes, largely because protectionism contradicts the fundamental logic of market economies. While these measures may appeal to nationalist sentiments, they tend to inflict the greatest damage on domestic industries, particularly in regions like the U.S. Rust Belt and rural farming communities—ironically, the very voter base that cheers them on. For Trump, however, the goal is often less about economic resolution and more about generating emotional value for his supporters—those who respond strongly to themes of self-reliance and industrial revival. 

Yet this time, the true turning point may lie in the strategic response from the one player Trump arguably values most in this context: China. Unlike its earlier, more passive response, China's approach is clear, composed and well-coordinated. Through diplomatic channels, official white papers and calibrated countermeasures, China consistently conveyed both firmness and restraint, suggesting extensive preparation and a full spectrum of contingency plans.

This measured response reflects a new economic landscape. Seven years after the first trade war with the U.S. started, China has enhanced its domestic resilience and technological capacity. Meanwhile, the U.S. grapples with deepening political polarization and an economy struggling to find structural momentum. The balance of power—and leverage—in this trade confrontation has unmistakably shifted.

Maintaining global order 

What stands out most in the ongoing tariff standoff is not simply the question of who "wins" or "loses," but the broader implications for global trade and economic stability. On April 11, after China imposed a 125-percent tariff on imports from the U.S., a spokesperson from the Ministry of Commerce said if the U.S. continues to play its tariff numbers game, China will not respond. The rationale was clear—pushing tariffs beyond a certain threshold risks paralyzing bilateral trade, turning further escalation into a symbolic numbers game with no practical economic impact. While Trump may find theatrical value in such brinkmanship, China appears uninterested in playing along.

More than just a tactical move, China's announcement signals two deeper messages. First, while China's countermeasures are assertive, they are not aimed at escalating the conflict into a protectionist deadlock. Instead, they reflect a refusal to be drawn into a zero-sum trade war that undermines long-term development goals. Second, China's approach, measured, rules-based and globally minded, demonstrates its commitment to defending the multilateral trading system and encouraging the U.S. to return to the negotiation table.

In this light, China's response is not merely about defending national interests; it is also a stand for the preservation of global order and the principles of globalization. By contrast, the renewed wave of broad, reciprocal tariffs from the Trump administration has drawn international condemnation. Far more sweeping than the measures of his first term, this latest policy wave has sparked widespread resistance and further eroded U.S. global leadership.

Amid this international backlash, a surprising coalition is emerging. Countries, from Europe to the Global South, are aligning with China, out of a shared interest to protect the integrity of global trade.

China and the EU began coordinating responses, agreeing to file joint complaints through the World Trade Organization (WTO) and preparing retaliatory tariffs. On April 12, their permanent missions to the WTO submitted a legal challenge to U.S. actions, calling for a dispute settlement panel, a big step toward reinforcing multilateralism over unilateralism.

Re-globalization by reshaping rules 

The recent wave of intensive cooperation between China and Europe signals a clear transition from reactive policies to a more proactive effort to shape a "de-Americanized" framework for global trade and technology. This shift isn't isolated to the trans-Eurasian axis. In the Global South, a similar current is building momentum. While the pace and positions of individual nations vary, the overarching trend is unmistakable: The U.S.-centric model of globalization is giving way to a more multipolar order. The era of American dominance in global governance is drawing to a close.

Some observers view this shift with alarm. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, for example, wrote in The Telegraph, a British daily newspaper, on April 5, that "old assumptions can no longer be taken for granted" and that "the world as we knew it has gone." While such statements reflect the uncertainty of our times, they risk mischaracterizing the underlying transformation. The move toward "de-Americanization" should not be mistaken for de-globalization. Nor does a reduction in U.S. dominance equate to chaos or collapse of global order. What is unfolding is not the death of globalization, but its reinvention.

The essential institutions of global order, such as the United Nations, the WTO and multilateral treaties like the 2015 Paris Agreement, still command wide international support. Most countries, particularly those in the Global South, continue to embrace globalization as a vehicle for development, cooperation and peace. Even within the U.S., there is growing opposition to isolationist policies and protectionist rhetoric. The challenges of recent years have, paradoxically, prompted the creation of new frameworks and rules that reflect a more diverse, balanced distribution of global power.

In this evolving landscape, China's role is increasingly central. As its domestic market continues to transform and upgrade, China's influence abroad, in investment, infrastructure, technology, talent and cultural exchange, is expanding steadily. These growing connections are subtly, yet powerfully, shaping the contours of the emerging global order. China, if it manages domestic growth effectively, will play a leading role in maintaining international cooperation and, along with other countries, rewriting the international rules so as to revitalize globalization and make global order equitable, sustainable and inclusive. BR

The author is a research fellow at the Academy of International and Regional Studies and director of the Turkish Studies Center at Beijing Language and Culture University 

Copyedited by Elsbeth van Paridon 

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