The outlook for China's future prosperity, progress and harmony is positive. After a period where the country had to navigate a global pandemic, significant geopolitical dynamics, and changes to a society dependent on modern technologies for commerce, community and nation-building, the future looks bright and we can and should look to recent history for proof of this.

China's reform and opening-up era officially began in 1978. Up to that point, China was overwhelmingly rural, mainly isolated from the rest of the world and the global economy, and its economy had largely stalled.

The era began at the Third Plenary Session of the 11th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC), held in December 1978. Initiated by then leader Deng Xiaoping, the reform and opening-up era marked a significant shift from Maoist policies to economic modernization and openness to the global economy. The effects of this era were profound and far-reaching, both for China and the world.

The new era of reform and opening up was introduced at the Third Plenum of the 18th CPC Central Committee, held in November 2013. To understand this last decade of change and growth and the country's prospects for the future, it is important to recap the prior reforms and changes introduced between 1978 and 2013.

The key decisions made at the Third Plenum of the 11th CPC Central Committee in 1978 that produced profoundly positive changes were implemented incrementally, pragmatically, and with an eye toward experimentation and adjustment.

Significant progress had been made since the reform and opening up started in 1978. However, China had become a radically different place by 2013, and the time had come to build on prior progress with a new vision for the future.

President Xi Jinping came into office determined to build an ever-greater society and economy. His vision for China for the next 10 years was presented at the Third Plenum of the 18th CPC Central Committee in 2013. It laid out a comprehensive reform agenda that significantly impacted China's economy, society and development trajectory over the subsequent decade.

The reforms made in 2013 have contributed to economic modernization, improved governance, social integration and environmental sustainability, not to mention global leadership in retail, digital commerce and innovative technologies.

There are a lot of things to be excited about in China as we look to the next 10 years, such as the country's exploding electric vehicle industry, its leadership in global e-commerce, the developments in artificial intelligence, new green technologies and higher living standards. However, ongoing efforts are needed to address remaining challenges.

It is through the lens of history and China's accomplishments over the last 40-plus years that we can look to the future to better understand where the country is headed.

Almost anyone under 35 years old has little to no understanding of what China experienced between the mid-19th and late 20th century. It is seen as a given, and viewed as inevitable that China would grow and prosper (and outpace other developing countries who are always "on the verge of it being their time.")

But none of China's progress was inevitable or a given. It was a series of brave commitments to change, experimentation, and yes, reform. To rebuild, reshape, and reconstitute a 5,000-year-old country, and then to open up to the rest of the world.

It is also worth remembering that all of this has happened in less than 50 years. There are countries that have been waiting and working on their "China Moment" for far longer and are still waiting.

China is a big country, with a massive population, facing many of the same challenges that all big countries, economies and populations face. These challenges are different from what they were 10, 20, 35 years ago and must be dealt with head on.

It is my belief that China is, and must be, committed to the spirit of reform and opening up to maintain and increase its prosperity at home, and its voice and potential for positive change globally.

The author is an op-ed contributor to Beijing Review and founder and CEO of U.S.-based consulting firms 5 New Digital and China BrightStar

Copyedited by G.P. Wilson

Comments to zhangshsh@cicgamericas.com

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China's reform and opening up and its key effects (1978-2013)

● Economic reforms

Agricultural reforms: Introduction of the household responsibility system, which allowed farmers to sell surplus produce in the market after meeting state quotas, leading to increased agricultural productivity and rural incomes.

Industrial reforms: Decentralization of economic decision-making and introduction of market mechanisms in state-owned enterprises (SOEs) to improve efficiency and productivity.

Foreign investment: Establishment of Special Economic Zones (SEZs) in coastal areas like Shenzhen, Zhuhai and Shantou in south China's Guangdong Province, and Xiamen in southeast China's Fujian Province, which attracted foreign direct investment (FDI) and became hubs of manufacturing and export-oriented industries.

● Trade liberalization

Export-led growth: Export-led growth strategies, which integrated China into the global economy and boosted its foreign exchange reserves.

World Trade Organization (WTO) membership: China's accession to the WTO in 2001 further solidified its integration into the global trading system, leading to significant increases in trade volumes.

● Urbanization and infrastructure development 

Urbanization: Rapid urbanization accompanied economic reforms, with millions of rural residents migrating to urban areas in search of better economic opportunities.

Infrastructure: Massive investments in infrastructure, including transportation, energy and telecommunications, facilitated economic growth and modernization.

Economic and social effects

● Economic growth

Rapid growth: China experienced unprecedented economic growth, with GDP growth rates averaging around 9-10 percent annually for several decades.

Poverty reduction: The economic reforms lifted hundreds of millions of people out of poverty, significantly improving living standards and reducing absolute poverty.

● Industrialization and modernization

Industrial output: China transformed from an agrarian economy to a global manufacturing powerhouse, producing a wide range of goods for domestic and international markets.

Technological advancement: The reforms spurred technological innovation and development, leading to advancements in various sectors, including electronics, automotive and information technology.

● Social changes

Urbanization: Rapid urbanization led to the growth of megacities and significant demographic shifts, with more than half of China's population living in urban areas by the early 21st century.

Education and health: Improvements in education and healthcare contributed to human capital development, although disparities between urban and rural areas remained a challenge.

Key effects of China's reform and opening up since 2013

Economic impact

● Market reforms and economic growth

Market role: The emphasis on giving the market a "decisive role" in resource allocation has led to increased efficiency and competitiveness in various sectors. The private sector has seen substantial growth, contributing significantly to GDP and job creation.

Financial sector liberalization: Interest rate and exchange rate liberalization efforts have helped modernize the financial sector, although the full liberalization process has been gradual. The establishment of the Shanghai Free Trade Zone (FTZ) in 2013 and subsequent FTZs have facilitated more significant foreign investment and trade.

● SOE reforms

Efficiency and competitiveness: Reforms within SOEs aimed at increasing efficiency and competitiveness have had mixed results. While some SOEs have become more market-oriented and profitable, others continue to struggle with inefficiency and debt.

● Innovation and entrepreneurship

Tech boom: Encouraged by supportive policies, China has seen a boom in innovation and entrepreneurship, particularly in technology sectors such as e-commerce, fintech and artificial intelligence. The rise of tech giants like Alibaba and Tencent exemplifies this trend.

● Urbanization and infrastructure development

Urbanization: Reforms in the hukou (household registration) system and urbanization policies led to continued significant migration of rural populations to urban areas, contributing to urban growth and infrastructure development. However, this also has brought challenges for urban planning and social services.

Social impact

● Social security and welfare

Expanded coverage: The expansion of social security coverage has improved the welfare of millions of citizens. Efforts to create a more inclusive social safety net are helping reduce poverty and inequality.

Healthcare and education: Investments in healthcare and education have improved access and quality, contributing to better living standards and human capital development.

● Legal and governance reforms

Rule of law: Enhancements in the rule of law and judicial independence, although gradual, have helped improve legal protections for citizens and businesses. Efforts to curb corruption through the anti-corruption campaign have improved government accountability.

● Environmental protection

Sustainability: Increased focus on environmental protection has led to stricter regulations and measures to combat pollution. The promotion of green technologies and renewable energy sources is supporting sustainable development, though environmental challenges remain significant.

● Quality of life

Improved living standards: Economic growth and social reforms have contributed to improved living standards for Chinese citizens. Increased disposable income, better social services and enhanced infrastructure are translating into a higher quality of life.

Effects of China's reform and opening up on the world

● Global supply chains

Manufacturing hub: China has become a central player in global supply chains, providing a vast array of manufactured goods at competitive prices, which has benefited consumers

worldwide.

Trade partner: As one of the world's largest exporters and importers, China has become a crucial trading partner for many countries, influencing global trade patterns and economic relationships.

● Economic impact

Growth engine: China's rapid economic growth has contributed significantly to global economic growth, particularly during periods of economic downturn in other regions.

Investment opportunities: The opening up of China's market has provided numerous investment opportunities for multinational corporations and foreign investors, contributing to global economic integration.

● Geopolitical influence

Rising power: China's economic rise has enhanced its geopolitical influence, leading to a more multipolar world and shifts in global power dynamics.

Belt and Road Initiative (BRI): Launched in 2013, the BRI aims to enhance global connectivity and economic cooperation, extending China's influence through infrastructure and investment projects across Asia, Africa and Europe.