Peter Koenig, a Swiss geopolitical analyst based in China, is a former World Bank senior economist and a non-resident senior fellow with the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of China, a Beijing-based think tank. In an exclusive interview with Beijing Review reporter Li Xiaoyang, Koenig shared his views on the significance of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in joint global development. Edited excerpts from their conversation follow: 

Beijing Review: How do you view the significance of the BRI in global development over the past decade? 

Peter Koenig: The BRI has had an enormous impact around the world. It has become the globe's most significant development program, connecting the participating countries through infrastructure and transportation links—like roads, railways and ocean routes—spanning the globe, with inroads into Latin America and Africa.

Although the target date for the BRI's completion is 2049, coinciding with the centennial celebration of the People's Republic of China, the initiative's potential in time and space is almost endless.

By August this year, 152 countries and 32 international organizations had signed documents for Belt and Road cooperation with China. The participating countries are home to almost 75 percent of the world's population and account for more than half of the world economy.

The BRI has promoted cooperation within and among the participating countries, fostered new and strengthened existing diplomatic ties, and allowed for interchange between these nations in research and development, as well as in education and cultural exchange. 

How do you think the BRI has boosted economic and trade ties? 

Various World Bank studies estimate that the BRI may boost trade flows in the participating countries by more than 4 percent and cut global trade costs by about 1 percent.

According to the London-based Center for Economic and Business Research (CEBR), the BRI is likely to increase the world's GDP by $7.1 trillion equivalent per year by 2040. The CEBR also estimates that benefits will be "widespread" since improved infrastructure reduces "frictions that hold back world trade."

With at least three land routes and several sea routes, including into Africa (the Swahili Route) and 22 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean region, the BRI is already reaching around the globe.

By late 2022, seven countries in South America were already participating in the BRI: Venezuela, Ecuador, Peru, Bolivia, Chile, Argentina and Uruguay.

And as of March this year, a mere 10 years after its launch, the BRI had already created more than 420,000 jobs and lifted 40 million people out of poverty in other participating countries than China.

This is an unbeatable record, like China lifting nearly 800 million people out of extreme poverty within the last more than 40 years.

This trend for the BRI will no doubt continue and accelerate in the foreseeable future, as the Global South's intent to disconnect from the U.S. dollar economy is noticeable everywhere. The Global South consists of the nations of the world considered to have relatively low levels of economic and industrial development, typically located to the south of more industrialized nations.

Before the BRICS Summit in Johannesburg, South Africa on August 22-24, more than 40 countries had expressed interest in joining and/or associating with the BRICS—an acronym for five emerging economies, namely, Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. BRICS leaders agreed at the summit to invite six countries, namely, Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, to join the group, whose membership will take effect on January 1, 2024.

The BRICS-plus today already makes up about half the world's population, about 4 billion people, and at least one third of the world's GDP.

Most, if not all, of the BRICS and the countries wanting to join the BRICS, aim to become Belt and Road participants. They feel more secure in the East, away from the dollar economy.

How should the green development of the BRI be promoted? 

The BRI is working well toward real green development. Infrastructure, like new roads, railways and sea lines—are reducing transportation costs, reducing vehicle and transportation maintenance, as well as reducing fuel consumption—all pointing in the direction of "real green."

Promoting cooperation and diplomatic relations between the participating countries—one of the BRI's attributes—is reducing conflicts and the potential for conflict. Peace is certainly No.1 on the true green agenda.

In the face of global challenges such as rising protectionism, how do you think the initiative can contribute to finding solutions?

Concerning protectionism, the BRI has been tearing down trade barriers and will continue to do so through the process described above, by connecting the participating countries and their people and by facilitating trade. Protectionism is a tool of the West, although their politicians know very well that they depend entirely on the East to maintain their standard of living.

The BRI is quietly advancing connecting people, leading to trade agreements.

If the Group of Seven (G7) of industrialized nations and their allies may appear hesitant, no problem. China has negotiated and concluded the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the world's largest free trade deal, which entered into force on January 1, 2022. By 2030, the RCEP is expected to generate more trade than all other trade agreements in the world combined.

Some voices still label the BRI as a geopolitical tool and "China's debt trap." What are your comments here? 

The BRI may, indeed, be a geopolitical instrument, but for the good: to establish peaceful relations among the participating countries and their people; to promote diplomacy which, in turn, reduces the potential for conflict.

As for a "debt trap"—this is a typical reproach from the West, coming from precisely those countries that benefit from the multilateral institutions lending to Global South countries, rendering them debt-enslaved.

When talking with African leaders, they will tell you, in private, that they by far prefer dealing with China than with the West. They will single out the United States, where agreements are broken, and [will tell you that] going along with changing conditions is coerced by threats of "sanctions."

No wonder some 40 Global South countries took part in the BRICS summit in August—they want to escape the Western debt trap.

The BRI is the antidote to a debt trap, so to speak, as it fosters cooperation among the participating countries and adjusts financing terms to the [individual] economic conditions of these countries. These conditions, in the long run, are considerably more favorable than Western loan terms.

In 2018, the BRI was included in China's Constitution. Today, it has become China's "grand political-economic project."

A bird's eye view of planet Earth will show you how the East is building and rebuilding the world for peace.

The BRI is an integral part of this picture.

Copyedited by Elsbeth van Paridon 

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