On July 5, the State Council, China's Central Government, issued the Carbon Peaking Action Plan for the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-30), which introduces 22 specific measures and outlines a roadmap for achieving China's goal of peaking its carbon emissions before 2030.

Over the past decades, the country has built the world's largest renewable energy power generation system. It has also become the global leader in many green technologies, including new-energy vehicles, lithium-ion batteries and solar power generation. Energy intensity and carbon emission intensity have continued to decline over the period.

However, China is still facing the challenge of balancing energy security and low-carbon transformation, as well as arduous tasks of carbon reduction and upgrading in high energy-consuming sectors such as manufacturing, transportation and construction. The 15th Five-Year Plan period will be a decisive stage in which carbon emissions shift from slower growth to stabilizing at a peak. Even a slight delay in the transformation could prolong the carbon peaking cycle and raise the peak value, potentially impacting the achievement of the 2060 carbon neutrality goal. In 2020, China set its dual goals of carbon peaking before 2030 and carbon neutrality before 2060. Against this backdrop, the recent action plan is of great importance.

Energy transition is the key to achieving carbon peaking. The action plan mandates that combined wind and solar power generation capacity exceed 2.8 billion kilowatts (kw), nuclear capacity exceed 110 million kw and non-fossil fuels reach 25 percent of total energy consumption by 2030, ensuring most increase in electricity demand is met by clean generation. While vigorously developing new energy sources, the action plan does not simply and drastically abandon fossil energy. Instead, it steadily promotes the cleaner and more efficient use of coal and optimizes the oil and gas consumption mix, so as to safeguard energy security during the transition period and achieve a dynamic balance.

Making industry greener is the main battlefield for carbon peaking. The action plan calls for traditionally high energy-consuming industries, such as steel, chemicals and building material manufacturing, to be made more energy- and carbon-efficient, setting a target of cutting carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by 17 percent. In addition, the plan aims to cultivate new green growth drivers, develop emerging industries such as hydrogen energy, green fuels and carbon management services, and build 100 national-level zero-carbon industrial parks and 500 zero-carbon factories.

To address the emerging need for power by computing infrastructure, the action plan promotes the green and low-carbon transformation of data centers, including by requiring newly built computing infrastructure to primarily use green electricity and by phasing out inefficient and outdated equipment. Furthermore, the circular economy is given a prominent position. By improving the recycling system for used batteries, retired photovoltaic modules and bulk solid waste, the action plan aims to transform waste into resources and to integrate carbon emission reduction with the transformation of traditional industries and the cultivation of emerging industries.

The action plan also promotes low-carbon practices tailored to both rural and urban development, incorporating green development into many aspects of people's life and work.

Promoting carbon peaking is not simply a matter of emission reduction, but also a profound reshaping of China's development model. The 22-measure action plan aims to balance three key relationships: first, balancing carbon reduction with energy security by simultaneously advancing the large-scale development of new energy sources and the steady replacement of fossil fuels; second, balancing short-term efforts with long-term planning, with a focus on carbon peaking during the 15th Five-Year Plan period while laying technological, industrial and institutional foundations for subsequent carbon neutrality; third, balancing regional disparities with unified national targets, with the Central Government setting general indicators while local governments formulate implementation measures based on their local conditions.

Copyedited by G.P. Wilson 

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