The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has lowered the world's expectations for the global economy in 2020. Standard & Poor's, the financial ratings agency, predicts that China's economic growth will slip to 2.9 percent this year. The China International Capital Corporation Limited, China's leading investment bank, places it at 2.6 percent. The World Bank has offered a more pessimistic forecast—2.3 percent—and in the worst case scenario caused by the pandemic, a plunge to 0.1 percent. China's economic growth for 2019 was 6.1 percent, leading international institutions to hold a bleak view about the country's economic growth in 2020.

In the first two months of the year, the Chinese economy has been hit hard by the coronavirus outbreak, even harder than the financial turmoil of 2008. Nevertheless, economic growth for the year as a whole is unlikely to be as bad as the predictions of international institutions, since all sectors of the economy have been returning to normal since March. Meanwhile, the Chinese Government has devised an array of policies meant to stabilize the economy, which are already proving effective for the recovery.

Being the world's manufacturing hub, China houses complete industrial chains, playing a crucial role in the global supply chain. The extent to which Chinese manufacturing resumes has a huge impact on the global economy, beyond China's borders.

According to China's National Bureau of Statistics and Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, more than 90 percent of the workforce has returned to work in the steel and electronics industries, while the rate for the textile, auto, and machinery industries is between 70 and 90 percent. World-leading pharmaceutical providers of vitamins, antibiotics, antipyretic and analgesic medicine are up and running, with more than 80 percent of their production capacity restored.

Even in hardest-hit Hubei Province in central China, 95 percent of state-run enterprises and big companies, which have an annual value of production over 20 million yuan ($2.86 million), resumed work at the beginning of April, with 70 percent of their workers returning to their posts.

China's manufacturing industry has largely returned to normal. On average, 98.6 percent of capacity is in operation for the country's businesses, with annual turnover of more than 20 million yuan and 89.9 percent of their workers back at work.

In small and medium-sized enterprises, 78 percent of staff has returned to work. While many countries are still struggling to contain the pandemic through shutdowns, the Chinese manufacturing sector is restoring normal operation.

To ensure the normal operation of these businesses, the government has produced policies to remedy the short supply of workers, funds and raw materials. The government is also helping to backstop businesses through tax breaks, fiscal subsidies and favorable loans. These measures are expected to sustain the manufacturing industry through the hard times ahead.

Secondary industry accounted for almost 40 percent of China's economic growth in 2019. Based on the current resumption of the manufacturing industry, its contribution to economic growth this year will surpass one third. Meanwhile, the pandemic has had comparably little impact on primary industry. Given the 6.1 percent GDP growth rate in 2019, calculations suggest that China's growth rate will beat international institutions' predictions in 2020. While specific numbers are difficult to ascertain during such uncertain times, the figure is unlikely to be as low as the more cynical forecasts suggest.

China is the engine of global economic growth. A stable economic situation in China is a boon to the rest of the world. Recent years have seen mounting financial risks and a lack of growth momentum. The outbreak of COVID-19 is adding greater downward pressure on the world's economic prospects. The picture of China's economy, shored up by a healthy manufacturing industry, will help prop up the global economy, while the resumption of work in the Chinese manufacturing sector will help stabilize the market, sustaining economic growth and livelihoods worldwide. It is also a guarantee for an open, stable and secure global supply chain.

The pandemic has not stopped China's steps toward opening up. Despite initial shockwaves, China continues to produce measures meant to improve the business environment and promote international trade, investment and financing. The conditions are right for the flow of global capital to China, while Chinese factories are set to become a major source of revenue and business support for international investors.

China's leading role in the world economic growth has not been diminished by the pandemic. Instead it has been strengthened.

Copyedited by Laurence Coulton

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