The upcoming arbitration decision is not going to resolve any territorial disputes. It doesn't have much practical value for the Philippines, a U.S. observer on international issues said on July 6 at the dialogue on South China Sea between Chinese and U.S. think tanks in Washington, D.C. to Beijing Review.

Bill Jones, Washington Bureau Chief of the Executive Intelligence Review, a U.S. weekly newsmagazine, is a long-time observer of the South China Sea issues. Jones told Beijing Review that the Philippines may very well decide its best interest is working together with its neighbor, China, a very important neighbor who can help it a lot, rather than adhere to a policy coming from the United States.

The Hague-based Arbitral Tribunal is going to issue an award on July 12 on the South China Sea case unilaterally initiated by the Philippines. China has declared that it does not accept and will not participate in the arbitration, and will never recognize the so-called "award." China issued a statement in accordance of article 298 of United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) in 2006, which has stated it will not accept compulsory procedures entailing binding decisions.

Jones thinks China will have sufficient support in law and in terms of world opinion that China can continue to say that its insistence is of course very legal and they will not accept the arbitration decision. The Philippines could, as Chinese former vice Foreign Minister Dai Bingguo said, draw back that arbitration.

"We still have a week before that happens. I don't know if the Philippino president is prepared to do that. However, he has indicated, whatever decision that China may take on the arbitration, he would be willing to enter into negotiations," said Jones.

Jones claimed, "I think the U.S. is still going to insist on what I think is an actually wrongheaded position, with regard to using this arbitration decision as a club against China, to get them to adhere to something that they really, by law, do not have to adhere to. And I think that really has to change if we're going to come to any conclusion here. "

Jones added that the basis for the U.S. beating China over the head is gone. "So hopefully the attitude here may change as well, but I have seen too much belligerence coming from the U.S. to think that's going to change any time soon,"

"And so we're going to see a lot of rhetoric back and forth as was indicated today with regard to that. But my feeling is that the situation perhaps is changing a little bit on the ground. We have certain sounds coming out from the Philippines, which are much more reconciliatory than we have heard, and perhaps that will change things," Jones noted.

Over the thorny issue, Chinese and U.S. think tanks hold a daylong closed session. The dialogue was jointly organized by Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, in coordination with the National Institute for South China Sea Studies and Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars.

(Reporting from Washington, D.C., the United States)