On January 19, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released its latest population data for 2025. The data showed that the trend of population decline persisted; the labor force remained abundant with steadily improving quality, while the society continued to experience moderate aging—a situation presenting both challenges and opportunities. Additionally, urbanization maintained its steady upward trajectory.

China is making sustained efforts to promote high-quality population development, so as to lay a strong demographic foundation for achieving high-quality economic and social development and advancing Chinese modernization.

China registered 7.92 million births and 11.31 million deaths in 2025, resulting in a net population decrease of 3.39 million. It was the fourth consecutive year of negative population growth since the peak of 1.413 billion in 2021, with the total population decreasing by 7.71 million over four years, averaging an annual net reduction of 1.93 million.

This transition is profound. In an analysis published on Chinese super app Weixin (known internationally as WeChat) by the Aging Society 30 Forum and the Pangoal Institution Ageing Society Studies Center on January 26, Yuan Xin, a professor of demography at Nankai University's School of Economics, noted, "China's population has shifted from a stage of incremental growth to one of reduction. Nevertheless, the population scale during this post-peak period remains massive, forming a potential super-large market with huge productive and consumption potential."

Historically, China's rapid economic ascent following the launch of reform and opening up in the late 1970s was significantly propelled by the demographic dividend. This dividend traditionally refers to the economic benefit derived when a nation has a large proportion of working-age individuals (ages 15-64 as typically defined in the world) relative to dependents (children aged 0-14 and seniors aged above 65), resulting in a low dependency ratio.

However, experts argue that this dividend has not vanished. Yang Yiyong, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Macroeconomic Research, told China Economic Weekly magazine that the previous dividend, built upon the massive supply of low-cost, young labor, is indeed weakening; but in its place, a new dynamic is emerging: The talent dividend. "China is transitioning from having an advantage in population quantity to an advantage in population quality," he said. "Talent dividend" refers to the benefits a population gains from the increase in quantity, quality improvement and full utilization of its talent.

Improved quality

Improvements in China's state of health and educational resources are setting the groundwork for sustained high-quality development, injecting robust momentum into high-quality population development.

The improvements are evident across key indicators. In 2024, China's average life expectancy reached 79 years, up 1.1 years from 2020, according to data released by the National Health Commission last September. Progress in maternal and child health was also notable, with maternal mortality falling to 14.3 per 100,000 and infant mortality dropping to 4 per 1,000—both metrics now below the average for middle- and high-income countries.

Educational advancement has been rapid and transformative. According to

statistics released by the Ministry of Education last June, by 2024, the gross enrollment ratio for higher education reached 60.8 percent (based on the official age group of 18-22). The population aged 16 to 59 stood at 851 million in 2025, with their average years of education reaching 11.3 years—equivalent to the second year of senior high school. This highly educated workforce forms the bedrock of the talent dividend.

The deepening trend of an aging society presents a complex social foundation for future development. Currently, the "young elderly" population (aged 60-69) constitutes over half of the total elderly cohort. Yuan pointed out that the vast majority of this group enjoy good health, possess higher education levels than previous generations and demonstrate a strong desire for social participation. "With the impetus of gradual delayed retirement and policies encouraging societal involvement, this demographic is well-positioned to play an active and productive role in economic and social affairs," Yuan said.

Simultaneously, population dynamics remain vibrant through migration to urban areas. Over two thirds of the population now reside in urban areas, and China is now home to the world's largest and most mobile migrant population. Migrant workers, numbering consistently around 300 million in recent years, are primarily young and middle-aged individuals moving from rural areas to cities, serving as a powerful engine for both urban and economic development.

In 2025, the urbanization rate, namely the ratio of permanent urban residents relative to the total population, hit a historic high of 67.9 percent, according to the NBS. "This mobility is actively driving China's structural transition from a 'rural China' defined by low factor mobility to an 'urban China' characterized by high factor mobility and concentration, which benefits coordinated urban-rural development and meets citizens' aspirations for a better life," Yuan said.

A new governance paradigm

These demographic shifts necessitate a comprehensive rethinking of governance. Zhai Zhenwu, Director of the Population Development Studies Center of Renmin University of China, told China Development and Reform News that the transition from growth to contraction requires a shift of focus from mere quantitative control to establishing a population governance system that is inherently adapted to China's national conditions while resisting the simplistic replication of foreign models.

This strategic pivot is encapsulated in the call for a "population service system covering all people and the entire life cycle," Shi Wei, an associate researcher specializing in population aging at the Beijing Institute of Technology, said. She suggested realizing a paradigm shift from "population management" to "population service," designed to meet the diverse needs arising from the transformation of population structure. She advocated that this system adhere to principles of fairness, universality and continuity, weaving together support across all life stages: reproduction, education, employment, medical care and senior care, creating a systematic support network from birth to death.

While Shi noted that the core logic should be "whole life cycle management," she acknowledged that the "young and the elderly" are the immediate policy priority. Targeted efforts are needed to establish robust care services for infants (0-3 years), develop inclusive childcare and family support policies to mitigate high parenting costs and employment constraints for women, and, on the elderly side, advance long-term care insurance, community-based care models and integrated medical-elderly care systems.

While addressing immediate demographic pressures through targeted care services for the young and elderly is crucial, transforming the nation's demographic structure to produce a sustainable talent dividend ultimately relies on enhancing human resource quality through comprehensive educational reform.

Cai Fang, an expert in population economics at the National High-End Think Tank of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said public education expenditure should be increased, pushing forward the extension of compulsory education and the popularization of higher education; and a comprehensive system for lifelong vocational skills training should be established. This training must be precise, targeting specific groups like agricultural migrants and older workers to effectively convert demographic quantity into a talent dividend. BR

Copyedited by G.P. Wilson 

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