Earlier this year, several Chinese provinces and regions published their population data for 2023. Among them, both Liaoning and Jilin provinces, located in the country's northeast, announced they had achieved rarely seen net population inflows.

To be specific, Jilin had a net population inflow of 43,400 people, which was its first in nearly 13 years. Liaoning reported a net inflow of 86,000 people, also reversing an outflow trend that began in 2012.

The three northeastern provinces, Heilongjiang, Jilin and Liaoning, account for more than 8 percent of the country's total landmass. According to data from the seventh national census, conducted in 2020, the region was home to a permanent population of more than 98 million, or 6.98 percent of the country's total, down 1.2 percentage points from the sixth census, conducted in 2010.

Population decline in the region over the past decade, partly due to outward migration caused by economic slowdown, has received widespread attention. The recently released demographic results suggest local authorities' efforts to develop new growth sources in these so-called rust belt provinces are paying off.

Population loss

Typically, population growth rate is determined by two main factors: natural growth (births minus deaths) and migration (inward migration minus outward migration). "The decline in the permanent population of Liaoning and Jilin is due to the low birth rate, and the natural population declines are greater than the net inflows," He Yafu, a demographer at YuWa Population Research think tank, told news portal Chengdu.cn. Although the two provinces recorded net population inflows last year, the overall trend of population decline in the provinces remains unchanged.

In 2023, Jilin had 88,400 births and 214,600 deaths, resulting in a natural population decrease of 126,200. Therefore, despite a net inflow of 43,400 people from other regions of the country, the resident population of the province had still decreased by 82,800 by the end of 2023. But this represents a significant improvement compared to the loss of over 270,000 in 2022.

In 2023, the natural population decrease in Liaoning was 236,000.

Heilongjiang had not released its 2023 population statistics at the time of writing. But the northeasternmost province has also faced significant demographic challenges, with one of the lowest natural population growth rates in the entire country and severe population outflow.

As of 2022, the number of permanent residents in Heilongjiang had dropped to 30.99 million, compared with its peak of 38.33 million in 2010. The province's natural population growth rate stood at minus 5.75 per thousand in 2022, ranking last among all 31 provincial-level regions on the Chinese mainland, followed by Liaoning (minus 4.96 per thousand) and Jilin (minus 4.07 per thousand).

"People have a tendency to relocate to regions with greater economic development," Yu Xiao, Dean of the Northeast Asian Studies College at Jilin University, told Beijing Review.

He said in the first 30 years after the founding of the People's Republic of China in 1949, the three northeastern provinces attracted a significant influx of migrants from other parts of the country due to their robust industrial foundation and well-established agricultural sector. However, in the 1980s, many of these migrants began returning to their hometowns after reaching retirement age. Additionally, the comparatively rapid development in the coastal areas of south and east China following the launch of reform and opening up in 1978 drew many migrants from the northeast.

"The main group leaving northeast China was the working-age population," Yu said.

In recent years, there has been a notable increase in the number of people, particularly retirees, choosing to relocate to warmer southern regions like Hainan and Guangdong provinces and Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region. This trend has played a role in the declining population in northeast China, where winter can last half of a year, with temperature often dropping to below minus 30 degrees Celsius. The desire for a milder climate has motivated many individuals to seek out more comfortable living conditions in areas that offer a respite from the harsh winters of the northeast.

Increasing attraction

Also contributing to northeast China lagging behind its southern, coastal counterparts since the 1980s was the poor performance of a large number of state-owned enterprises, which used to dominate the local economy, and the relatively weak private sector. In 2003, the Communist Party of China Central Committee launched a major strategic policy to revitalize northeast China. Since then, national and provincial governments have been making efforts to achieve the goal.

Yu believes that the main underlying cause of the net influx of population in Jilin and Liaoning in 2023 is the upbeat economic development there. Effective pro-development policies and measures have led to more job opportunities and higher income levels, which in turn have attracted individuals to relocate to or return to these regions.

In 2023, GDP growth of Jilin was 6.3 percent, ranking seventh in the country, the best in nearly three decades. GDP of Liaoning grew by 5.3 percent, surpassing the national growth rate, which stood at 5.2 percent last year, for the first time in nearly a decade.

The sound entrepreneurship climate, affordable housing prices, appealing living conditions and friendly and welcoming nature of the local residents have also played a significant role in attracting many individuals to settle down in northeast China.

Even the frigid temperatures that were once a deterrent have now become a captivating aspect of life in the northeast, drawing people from all over the country to discover the enchanting ice and snow wonderlands of the region. As a result, many northeastern cities have recorded an unprecedented surge in tourist visits and revenue in recent years.

According to Li Enping, a researcher of urban development and regional economy at the Research Institute for Eco-civilization of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, given the current momentum of economic development, it is anticipated that the net inflow of population, particularly among the young and middle-aged demographic, will likely continue in northeast China in the coming years. The positive economic prospects and entrepreneurship opportunities present in the provinces are expected to attract more individuals seeking employment, career growth and a higher standard of living. This influx of population will contribute to further economic development of the region.

Yu emphasized that in order to attract a larger population, particularly highly skilled individuals, it is crucial to optimize the economic structure of the region. While maintaining a focus on traditional pillar industries like equipment manufacturing and agriculture, it is also important to prioritize the development of hi-tech and emerging industries.

Furthermore, by combining local features and advantages with new business models such as livestreaming and e-commerce, new employment opportunities can be created for young people, Yu added.

He said he believes by leveraging the advantages of these new technologies and business models, it is possible to foster entrepreneurship and provide a vibrant environment for attracting and retaining talent in northeast China.

Copyedited by G.P. Wilson

Comments to luyan@cicgamericas.com