China
Five years after the two-child policy went into effect, debate on whether to have more children continues
By Lu Yan  ·  2021-03-10  ·   Source: NO.10 MARCH 11, 2021
Mothers-to-be exercise in a park in Xingtai, Hebei Province in north China, on July 11, 2020 (XINHUA)

Yang Wanfang, a 31-year-old professional in Changchun, Jilin Province in northeast China, is determined not to have a second child. "It's both tiring and costly," she told Beijing Review.

Four years ago, when her son was born, Yang stayed at home taking care of him for a year. Now he goes to kindergarten and her parents help take care of him. She's working again at a new job as a certified enterprise trainer.

"If we have another child, we wouldn't be able to provide him or her with the best care and education. So we prefer to take good care of just one child," Yang said.

Her husband suggested having a second child when their firstborn is in college, as many of his colleagues have, but Yang said a firm no. "Neither I nor our parents would have the energy to take care of a baby at that age," she said.

Yang's attitude represents that of many young parents'. Having to balance work and family life, which includes looking after their children and ensuring a good education for them until they turn 18 as well as taking care of aging parents, having only one child seems the best choice.

Besides, Yang said having a baby affects her career. When her son was born, she used up the maternity leave and then had to quit the job to look after him. "It was a hard decision. Although I prioritize my family over my job, I do want to build my own career," she said.

 
Children draw pictures at a kindergarten in Shenyang, capital of Liaoning Province in northeast China, on February 19 (XINHUA)

Relaxed control 

China's population policy has undergone an evolution, with the decades-long family planning policy relaxed.

The policy was introduced in the 1970s to curb population explosion. However, there have always been exceptions. For instance, the ethnic minority communities and some rural people were largely exempt from the policy that allowed only one child in the majority of families.

When the new Population and Family Planning Law came into effect in 2002, it stipulated that a couple may have two children if both were the only child in their families.

In 2013, the government announced two children would be allowed for a couple if one of them was an only child. Three years later, a new policy came into effect, allowing every married couple to have two children.

From 2013 to 2017, the birth rate in China was above 12 per 1,000 people, but in 2018, it declined to below 11 per 1,000. In 2019, it dropped to 10.48 per 1,000 people, the lowest since 2000, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

Over the recent three decades, the total fertility rate, the average number of children each woman has, has gradually declined to below the replacement level.

In December last year, Civil Affairs Minister Li Jiheng warned that the total fertility rate had fallen below the warning line and population development had entered a critical transition period. Li attributed it to several factors, including the reluctance among people of the right age to have children.

Wang Guangzhou, a researcher at the Institute of Population and Labor Economics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, elaborates this further. The number of people born in the 1990s was less than the number in the 1980s, and the number of people born in the 2000s is less than the number in the 1990s, Wang told China Report.

Another problem is a skewed sex ratio. For example, in 2019, the male-to-female ratio was 104.45 males per 100 females. Wang also enumerated other factors that lead to lower fertility, such as high housing prices, and the costs of education and medical care.

A decrease in the number of marriages, postponement of marriage and increase in the level of education are some other reasons. According to the NBS, the average age of first marriage for women increased from 21.4 years in 1990 to 25.7 in 2017, and is rising still. The average age to have a child also increased from 23.4 to 26.8 years during the period.

According to Liu Ruiming, a researcher with the National Academy of Development and Strategy, Renmin University of China, some people have reservations about having a child as they are in the career development stage. Facing the high cost of childbirth and upbringing, even if they have the will to start a family, they do not have the ability to pay for it. Plus women's status in the family has risen and they are no longer willing to be housewives without a career. So many couples completely give up the thought of having children.

Despite all this, the two-child policy has shown results. The newborn population in either 2016 or 2017 was higher than the average during the 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-15) period, according to a report by the NBS. The number of second children accounted for about half of the number of births from 2017 to 2019 or more, according to the NBS.

"Without the two-child policy, the number of births would decrease even faster. The policy cushioned the declining fertility," Wang said.

 
A nurse with a newborn baby in a hospital in Guangzhou, Guangdong Province in south China, on May 9, 2020 (XINHUA)

Improving policies 

Wei Meng, a 30-year-old with one child, would like to have a second one as she and her husband think having siblings is good for a child. "But I'm still undecided," she said. "It would be a much easier decision if the government would make more preferential policies for parents with two children."

Various ways are being discussed to improve the birth rate. Song Limin, head of the Public Policy Research Center of the Institute of Population Research at Liaoning University, told news website Cnr.cn that the government should consider differentiated personal tax deduction and subsidy policies to reduce the cost of childcare. She suggested a multistep subsidy mechanism could be implemented according to the number of children a family has and the different stages of the children's growth. Also, the commodities used in the process of giving birth and raising children, such as maternal and child products, should be exempt from tax.

Song also recommended childcare leave for fathers to reduce the childcare burden on mothers and help their careers.

In the national nine-year compulsory education system, education in both primary schools and junior secondary schools is free. However, parents have to pay for nursery schools, and private ones are expensive.

Lin Yong, a professor at South China Normal University, suggests increasing special deductions for child support expenses for children up to the age of 3, which can make more couples willing to have children.

However, Renmin University of China's Liu thinks stimulating population growth solely through birth rewards is not a sustainable solution. "The fertility rate actually depends more on land supply, and real estate, education and medical policies. We need to continue reforms in these areas to reverse the entire trend of birth declines," he said.

 

(Print Edition Title: The Second Child Issue) 

Copyedited by Sudeshna Sarkar 

Comments to luyan@bjreview.com 

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