Business
A Positive Outlook
Experts are optimistic about the economic prospects for both China and the world
By Sherry Qin  ·  2019-11-21  ·   Source: Web Exclusive
Panelists discuss the outlook of the world economy at the 2019 Mingde Forum in New York City on November 10 (ZHAO WEI)

The possibility of a global recession is low and China remains the stabilizer of the global economy, both economists and analysts agreed at the annual Mingde Forum on November 10 in New York City.

Guan Ning, founder and Chief Investment Officer at QuantScape Asset Management, said the U.S. economy grew at 1.9 percent rate in the third quarter, beating market expectations and alleviating worries of a recession in the U.S. and repercussions worldwide.

"The winter of [the global economy] isn't coming," said Guan during a panel discussion at the forum, which was hosted by Renmin University of China North America Alumni Association.

The U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed) has cut interest rates three times this year, and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said earlier this month that policymakers at the U.S. central bank are unlikely to cut rates in December as long as growth continues.

Even if risks emerge, the Fed still has room to do quantitative easing to stimulate the economy, given the current low inflation rate, said Li Xiangyang, Managing Director of Roosevelt Management Co. The annual U.S. inflation rate was 1.8 percent at the end of October, according to U.S. official data.

Despite the fact that the world has $13 trillion worth of negative-yielding debt, Tang Qi, Senior Vice President at investment management firm Neuberger Berman, said the lower demand for mortgage loans will offset the effect of the negative yield on the global economy.

China will continue to be the stabilizer of the world economy in the years to come, said Ji Mo, chief economist for Greater China at investment management and research firm AllianceBernstein.

"China's economic growth has outperformed analysts' expectations of falling below 6 percent this year," Ji said. "This is because the slowdown in China's GDP growth is periodic not linear," she explained, indicating that the slowdown won't continue a downward trend.

Data from China's National Bureau of Statistics showed that its GDP grew by 6.2 percent in the first three quarters of the year, despite the fact that it dropped to 6 percent in the third quarter.

The Chinese Government may continue to stimulate its economy in 2020 and 2021, especially in sectors like green energy and other emerging industries, said Ji, adding that she believes that some upbeat data can change the whole trend of China's economic growth.

Regarding the impact of the trade war with the U.S., Ji said that it can force China to facilitate its industrial upgrading. Breakthroughs in scientific and technological research and development will generate huge demand, Ji noted.

(Reporting from New York City)

Copyedited by Rebeca Toledo

Comments to yushujun@bjreview.com

China
Opinion
World
Business
Lifestyle
Video
Multimedia
 
China Focus
Documents
Special Reports
 
About Us
Contact Us
Advertise with Us
Subscribe
Partners: China.org.cn   |   China Today   |   China Hoy   |   China Pictorial   |   People's Daily Online   |   Women of China   |   Xinhua News Agency
China Daily   |   CGTN   |   China Tibet Online   |   China Radio International   |   Global Times   |   Qiushi Journal
Copyright Beijing Review All rights reserved 京ICP备08005356号 京公网安备110102005860